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Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks: Bills vs. Patriots (Week 13)

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On Thursday night, the Bills and Patriots will square off in Foxborough. Both teams sit above .500 in the AFC East and find themselves in the thick of the AFC playoff race.

With a total of 43.5, the books expect this to be relatively low scoring. That said, both of these defenses have struggled in recent weeks. There are three TD props that I like a lot heading into this matchup:

Jakobi Meyers Anytime TD (+280 FanDuel)

While the Patriots’ passing game has struggled this year, Jakobi Meyers is posting a very effective season. Meyers has 47 catches on 62 targets for 571 yards and three TDs in nine games this year. He has never been a major red zone threat in his career, but he has seen five red zone targets this year. This may not seem like a lot, but it’s the most for any WR on the Patriots this year. In fact, it makes up half of the red zone target share the entire Patriots’ WR core has seen.

Mac Jones played well last week in a loss, throwing for 382 yards and 2 TDs. I expect him to come out firing against a Bills’ defense that has struggled to defend opposing WRs in the last few weeks. Over their previous three games, Buffalo has allowed 646 receiving yards and 6 TDs on 51 catches to opposing WRs.

Given the share of WR opportunity that Meyers has on the Patriots and the Bills’ recent struggles against opposing WRs, this prop looks like a great value.

Devin Singletary Anytime TD (+155 DraftKings)

Devin Singletary is having a nice year as the Bills’ primary running back this season. He’s scored four TDs, including three in the past three weeks. He should likely have even more, however. Singletary has seen 36 red zone opportunities this season, tied for 4th most in the NFL. For context, every player with more red zone opportunities than Singletary has at least 8 TDs this season. Singletary is due for TD regression.

The Patriots’ run defense has been exceptional this year, and they’ve allowed just 2 TDs total to opposing RBs all season. That said, I think Singletary will see enough opportunity to make this a bet worth taking. The Bills’ have run the ball well this season, and getting a player with Singletary’s red zone volume at +145 to score a TD is a great value.

Stefon Diggs First TD (+700 FanDuel)

Statistically, Stefon Diggs has been one of the best WRs in the NFL this season. Dominating target share in Josh Allen’s offense is a great way to post big numbers, and Diggs has done just that. This season, he has 84 receptions on 119 targets for 1110 yards and 9 TDs. Diggs has an insane 19 red zone targets this year, including 6 in the last three weeks. Diggs has seen more than half of the Bills’ red zone targets intended for WRs.

I expect the Bills to involve Diggs early and often against a Patriots’ defense that allowed 2 TDs on 20 catches to Vikings WRs last week. The Patriots are good against WRs this season, but they have allowed big games to star WRs, including Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Garrett Wilson. Given his volume, I think Diggs has a great shot at scoring the first TD of the game.


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