Titans vs. Cowboys: NFL Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks (Week 17)
On Thursday night, the Cowboys and Titans will square off in Nashville. This is a big game for the Cowboys as they look to hang in the race for the NFC East title. Tennessee, on the other hand, has little to play for — they’re likely to play it conservatively with injured starters in anticipation of next week’s Winner-Take-All game in Jacksonville.
With a total of just 39.5 points, this should be a pretty low-scoring game. That said, there’s plenty of interesting value in TD props for the game. Below are three props I’ll be playing on Thursday.
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Hassan Haskins Anytime TD (+180 FanDuel)
The Titans are likely to be down quite a few starters on offense Thursday night. Notably, starting QB Ryan Tannehill will miss the game and RB Derrick Henry is trending that way as well. Henry’s absence, combined with Dontrell Hilliard’s status on Injured Reserve, would open up an opportunity for backup RB Hassan Haskins to be the lead back on Thursday.
Haskins has played very sparingly this season, totaling just 50 yards on 11 carries so far. He was impressive in college, however, and has the skill set to make plays given a larger opportunity on Thursday. With rookie QB Malik Willis having struggled in limited action this season, I expect the Titans to lean on Haskins wherever they can, especially around the goal line.
The Cowboys’ defense has been very effective this year against opposing RBs, but given the opportunity he’s in for, I like Haskins’ Anytime TD prop at its current price. At a minimum, he’ll get opportunities to carry the ball in the red zone.
Michael Gallup Anytime TD (+280 FanDuel)
While CeeDee Lamb is posting another monster season, Michael Gallup has quietly emerged as a great red zone target in recent weeks. Gallup has three TDs in his last four games. Over that stretch, he’s posted eight total red zone targets, the most of any Cowboys WR. He posted at least one red zone target in each of those four games — the only Cowboy to do so.
The Titans have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL against opposing WRs. They’ve allowed 19 TDs to opposing WRs — the second-highest mark in the NFL. They also allow the third-most catches and third-most yards to opposing WRs. While CeeDee Lamb is likely to benefit from this mismatch, I think Gallup’s TD price represents better value. He outpaced Lamb in terms of red zone targets and TDs in recent weeks, and his +280 price upside doesn’t reflect this.
The risk of a blowout that doesn’t see the Cowboys throwing much late is real here, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take. Based on recent usage and production, Michael Gallup to score is an undervalued prop.
Ezekiel Elliott First TD (+340 DraftKings)
All year, both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott have been torching opposing defenses. When it comes to scoring TDs, however, Zeke is a safer bet this year. Elliott is on an insane run, scoring a TD in each of his last eight games. He scored the first Cowboys’ TD in his last two games, and the Cowboys scored a rushing TD as their first score in each of their last three games.
Tennessee’s run defense has been a strength this year. Even so, given the Cowboys’ willingness to feed Zeke early and around the goal line, Elliott is a good bet to score first. For a more conservative play, Anytime TD at -175 is also a viable play for Zeke.
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