Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Friday, September 2 (2022)
We’ve reached September! That means we’re getting closer to postseason baseball!
It’s been an extremely profitable year in the MLB so far. But we’re not finished yet. Here are three best bets for tonight’s MLB slate.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Anytime I can fade Dallas Keuchel, I’m going to do it. Keuchel will take the mound for the Rangers. In his last 27 plate appearances, he has a 6.35 xFIP while striking out only 3.7% of batters faced.
The left-hander has given up a .448 wOBA and ISO of .278 to his last 21 right-handed batters, and he’ll have to face seven righties in the Boston lineup. Tommy Pham, Xander Boagaerts, Enrique Hernandez, and Bobby Dalbec are all right-handed bats for the Red Sox that have been hot against lefties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Nick Pivetta will take the mound for the Red Sox. He’s a righty with a 4.82 xFIP in the last 30 days. However, he’s struck out 23.8% of batters in that time frame while limiting line drives and inducing nearly 49% of ground balls when balls are batted into play.
The Rangers have struggled when Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Nate Lowe aren’t at the plate against righties. That means six batters in the Texas lineup have simply struggled in the last 30 days. Let’s take the Red Sox on the run line in this one.
Bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Anytime you can take the under in a Sandy Alcantara game, it makes sense. The Marlins are one of the worst offenses in the league, and Alcantara is one of the best pitchers.
But it’s not just Alcantara who has pitched well recently. Charlie Morton will man the mound for the Braves tonight. He’s holding a 3.32 xFIP in the last 30 days with high strikeouts and low walks. Morton has struck out 34.4% of batters faced and has limited walks and line drives when balls are batted into play.
The Marlins are hitting a .125 ISO with a wOBA .285 against righties using their projected lineup in the last month. That won’t get the job done against Morton.
Meanwhile, Alcantara also has limited walks and line drives. He’s induced nearly 50% of ground balls and has an xFIP of 4.12 in the last 30 days. He’s not a heavy strikeout pitcher, but with the Braves striking out 24.4% of the time in the last 30 days, Alcantara could end up adding more strikeouts to his resume tonight.
Let’s back the under.
Bet: Under 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Houston Astros will send out Lance McCullers for another start. He was on the injured list for most of the season and is still getting comfortable on the mound.
Dating back to last year, he’s a big strikeout pitcher and will take on an Angels lineup that has struck out 26.5% of the time in the last 30 days against righties. The Angels are getting production out of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, but the rest of the lineup is very inconsistent.
On the other hand, Reid Detmers will take the hill for the Angels. The young lefty has finally started to come around in the big leagues. In the last 30 days, he has had a 3.98 xFIP while striking out 24.7% of batters. He’s ultimately done a solid job keeping extra-base hits off the board, and if he does that again tonight, he’ll help the total stay under against the Astros.
Bet: Under 8 (-110 at DraftKings)
Bet $5, Win $200 on Any MLB Moneyline
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.