Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 27 (2022)
We started the weekend with some profit after going 2-1 with our selections yesterday. I’d love to continue with that momentum going into today’s slate in the MLB.
Here are my top three bets on the MLB slate for August 27.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
We’ve got an exciting pitching matchup in Miami today. Dustin May of the Dodgers will take on the likely NL Cy Young in Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins.
May faced 18 batters in his return last week and looked incredible. He struck out 50% of batters faced and finished with an xFIP of 1.61. May was adapting last season and was proving that he could be a reliable rotation piece for the Dodgers. Once he got back onto the mound, he looked just as good as last year.
Not only did May earn 50% of strikeouts. He also induced over 71% of ground balls when balls were batted into play and didn’t allow a single line drive.
He’ll now face a Marlins lineup that just designated Jesus Aguilar for assignment. Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara has been the most consistent pitcher in baseball. His xFIP is a bit high lately, at 4.55 and he’s not earning a ton of strikeouts. But he’s limited walks while continuing to get plenty of ground balls when balls are batted into play.
The Dodgers have done well against ace pitchers in the last couple of weeks, but a bad game for Alcantara is allowing around three or four runs in seven innings. The Marlins probably won’t score more than a run off May. I’ll grab the under.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Dallas Keuchel should never be a favorite when on the mound. Ever. At all.
Keuchel is 2-7 on the season with an 8.53 ERA. He hasn’t pitched in the last 30 days but on the season, Keuchel has a 5.37 xFIP with low strikeouts and high walks. He’s also allowed 25.8% of line drives when balls are batted into play this season.
The Tigers have very little power and don’t have much offense. But any offense can hit against Keuchel.
On the other hand, Eduardo Rodriguez will get the start for the Tigers. It’s satisfying to see him back out on the field after he was away from the game due to personal reasons for most of the season. He’s another lefty who has much better stuff than Keuchel. He’ll take on a Rangers lineup that has a .088 ISO and wOBA of .284 in the last 30 days against lefties.
I’ll back the Tigers on the road at +100.
Bet: Tigers ML (+100 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Atlanta Braves have been red hot offensively in the last 30 days, especially against lefties. But tonight, things could cool off going up against Jordan Montgomery of the Cardinals.
Montgomery has pitched extremely well since being traded from the Yankees and has a 3.19 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 27.5% of batters faced while only walking 4.6% of batters.
Montgomery can earn a high rate of ground balls and will take on a Braves lineup that has hit 47% of ground balls in the last 30 days against lefties. That’s appealing if you’re backing Montgomery.
Meanwhile, Charlie Morton will take the hill for the Braves. He’s been just as good, holding a 2.56 xFIP in the last 30 days. Morton has been borderline unhittable lately, striking out 38.8% of batters faced in that time frame.
Nolan Arenado is currently away from the team with his wife having a baby. That makes things a bit worse for the Cardinals and their offense.
With two incredible pitchers on the mound, I’m siding with the under.
Bet: Uner 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
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