Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, April 2nd (2021)
Opening Day started with a bang, and we are in for a tremendous season if every day plays out like yesterday. Three big underdogs (Blue Jays, Tigers, Pirates) won outright and kicked off the day as big moneymakers for the sportsbooks. Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes homered in his first at-bat and kicked off what many predict will be a Rookie of the Year campaign in style. The Dodgers can no longer go 162-0 after an 8-5 loss to the Rockies. Of the 13 games, eight were decided by one run, and three teams (Brewers, Phillies, and Mariners) walked off in extra innings.
On a sour note, we had our first postponement due to COVID-19, as Major League Baseball postponed the Nationals-Mets opener “out of an abundance of caution.†And we had a good old-fashioned weather postponement, as rain forced the Orioles-Red Sox opener to this afternoon.
After every team was slated to be in action yesterday, less than half of the Major League teams play today.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 2-1 (+0.65 units)
Chicago White Sox ML (+104)
New White Sox manager Tony La Russa did not have the debut he hoped for, as his team blew a 3-2 lead in the eighth inning and lost 4-3. The good news is that his team enjoys a considerable pitching mismatch today and is a great bet to get their first win.
White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel has owned the Angels in his career. Keuchel is 12-2 with a 3.36 career ERA against the Angels. His .875 winning percentage against Los Angeles is his highest against any team with more than four decisions against. Keuchel finished fifth in the CY Young voting in his first season with the White Sox, so it is clear he likes the South Side.
Keuchel would be wise to avoid letting Mike Trout and Albert Pujols beat him, as the two are a combined 23-for-85 with five career home runs against him.
Keuchel is opposed by Angels starter Andrew Heaney, who went 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA last year. 2020 was Heaney’s first season that he finished above .500. The left-handed Heaney has held opposing left-handed hitters to a .361 slugging percentage in his career, but righties are slugging .464 against him. That is problematic when facing a right-handed dominant White Sox lineup that features Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson, among others.
San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-109)
The San Diego Padres proved that their offense will be relentless this year, as they tagged Diamondbacks starter Madison Bumgarner for six runs over four innings. They scored eight runs with their 1-through-3 hitters (Tommy Pham, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado) combining to go 2-for-14 with no RBI. Though the Padres blew a five-run lead, they showed their resilience and eventually took back the lead in the seventh inning.
While the Padres displayed their lineup depth, nothing signifies San Diego’s pitching staff’s depth like the fact that former CY Young award winner and prized free-agent, Blake Snell, was not their Opening Day starter. Snell has just one career appearance against the DBacks. He did not allow a run over six innings and struck out nine against them as a member of the Rays. Current Diamondbacks hitters are a combined 2-for-25 against Snell with one extra-base hit. However, that extra-base hit was by Cole Kalhoun, who is out for the first two series of the season after undergoing knee surgery last month.
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly led the National League in 2019 with 14 but rebounded nicely last year with a 3-2 record and 2.59 ERA. Current Padres are slugging .434 against him, and a big day could be in store for Fernando Tatis Jr., who has three home runs in 11 career at-bats against Kelly.
Look for Tatis and Manny Machado’s bats to wake up today and for them to lead San Diego to a more comfortable win on day two of the season.
Seattle Mariners ML (-132)
This West Coast matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners pits two veteran starters pitchers against one another who are each coming off the worst seasons of their careers. Johnny Cueto, the 14-year veteran, posted a career-high 5.40 ERA, which makes two straight years he finished a season with an ERA higher than 5.00.
James Paxton returns to Seattle for his second stint with the club. From 2013-2018, Paxton went 41-26 for Seattle. He spent the last two seasons with the New York Yankees and posted two of the three worst seasons in terms of ERA of his career. His 2020 campaign was cut short by injuries as he was limited to five starts before going on the 45-day IL with a flexor strain in his left forearm. Paxton also battled knee injuries in his time in the Bronx and never materialized to be the ace that GM Brian Cashman hoped he would be.
However, Paxton will be happy to be pitching at Safeco Field once again, as he is 22-15 with a 2.99 ERA in 51 career starts there. The only ballpark he has a lower ERA where he made more than two starts is Angels Stadium.
Injuries have been something that has plagued Paxton his entire career, even dating back to his days in Seattle. He never threw more than 160.1 innings or made more than 28 starts with the Mariners. However, we are excited to get on board behind Paxton in his comfortable confines in early April while injuries are not an issue.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.