Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, April 9th (2021)
We are just over a week into the Major League Baseball season, and already several important players to many teams are dealing with nagging injuries. Between Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, George Springer, and others, their teams’ lineups look vastly different when they are not healthy. Some of those players are already on the IL, while others are awaiting further test results or decisions from their front offices on how to handle their injuries. Let this be a reminder to stay current with injury news or wait before making a wager on certain games to see who is in and out of the lineup each day.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 11-7 (+3.65 units)
Nationals-Dodgers UNDER 8.5 runs (-109)
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Joe Ross is making his first start since 2019, as he sat out last year citing concerns about COVID-19. When we last saw him two years ago, he pitched to his highest career ERA (5.48) of any season. That fact and the uncertainty surrounding how he will handle such a long layoff are significant factors in this high total. So is the fact that he has a 7.02 career ERA in 16 2/3 innings against the Dodgers. However, Ross had a strong spring with a 2.79 ERA in 9 2/3 innings and a WHIP of just 0.931. He is unlikely to be asked to go deep into the game, so a bet on the over simply because of Ross’s poor numbers is misguided.
Dodgers starter Walker Buehler on the other hand, should go at least six innings. He allowed two runs over six innings in his first start against the Rockies. Buehler loves pitching at Dodgers Stadium, as he has a 2.46 ERA in 34 career home games (30 starts).
Dodgers sluggers Mookie Betts (lower back stiffness) and Cody Bellinger (calf soreness) both sat out Wednesday’s game against Oakland. Bettors should be sure to monitor if either player is in the lineup, while the Dodgers are seemingly looking at all options with them, including possible IL stints. We hope to catch this total at its highest, as it should come down slightly if either player once again sits out.
The under is 18-7-1 in the teams’ last 26 meetings in Los Angeles, and given Buehler’s success at home, we like it to cash once again.
Padres-Rangers UNDER 9 runs (+100)
The San Diego Padres offense has been stuck in the mud for the last four games, as they have totaled just eight runs in that span. The Padres miss Fernando Tatis Jr.’s bat at the top of the lineup, and first baseman Eric Hosmer has carried the offense to this point. Texas’s offense has been inconsistent at home thus far, being held to two runs in two of their first three home games. With the ball carrying out of Globe Life Field less in the early part of the season, it is an excellent opportunity to jump on this relatively high total.
Padres starter Joe Musgrove was stellar in his Padres debut, going six scoreless innings and striking out eight Diamondbacks. Dating back to last year, Musgrove has three consecutive starts of six or more scoreless innings and allowing three hits or less.
Musgrove’s counterpart, Kohei Arihara, is making his second-ever Major League start. Arihara allowed three runs on six hits in five innings against the Royals.
Each lineup’s unfamiliarity with the opposing pitcher makes the under even more appealing. Three Rangers hitters have a combined eight at-bats against Musgrove, so look for him to continue his momentum from his last three starts.
The under is 6-0 in San Diego’s last six games and is 29-14-3 in Texas’s last 46 interleague home games against winning teams. The Padres offense will not be kept down for long, but I like the rookie Arihara’s chances of making a quality start.
Athletics-Astros OVER 9 runs (-109)
Both Oakland and Houston’s starting pitchers have already faced the other team once this season. Athletics starter Sean Manaea allowed five runs in 4.2 IP against the Astros, with Kyle Tucker and Jason Castro each hitting home runs. The fact that two of Houston’s more unheralded hitters bodes well for their chances of scoring runs today, as Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman can only be held down for so long.
Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr allowed two hits and one run over five innings, striking out seven in his first start against Oakland. However, his command was not sharp as he worked around three walks. Look for Oakland’s hitters to be more patient at the plate tonight given McCullers’ relative lack of control, which means more outs could come from the bullpen tonight.
The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams, and the two teams are a combined 10-5 to the over this year. Look for more fireworks in the second game of the series.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.