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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 6th (2021)

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The Philadelphia Phillies were down by two runs and down to their last out, then stormed back for a 7-6 victory over the Washington Nationals. The San Francisco Giants were down 4-0 to the Arizona Diamondbacks entering the ninth inning, then rallied for a 5-4 extra-innings victory. The moral of the story is that live betting can be very profitable and that poor teams like the Nationals and Diamondbacks will lose plenty of games like the ones they just lost over the next two months. It also serves as a reminder that when one contemplates wagering on an over/under or moneyline, take into account the strength of both teams’ bullpens and not just their starting pitchers.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 128-111-6 (+2.35 units)

New York Mets ML (-115)

The series opener between the Mets and Phillies is a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Mets lost three of four to the Marlins, which was their third consecutive series loss. They are 11-15 in their last 26 games and have seen their lead in the NL East dwindle to a half-game. The Phillies have won five straight games, which is the longest current active winning streak in baseball. However, the Mets are 8-5 against the Phillies this year, and the worry is that the stage will be too big for Philadelphia’s starting pitcher, who is not used to pitching in games of this magnitude.

The newly acquired Kyle Gibson makes his home debut for the Phillies, with a chance to vault his team into first place in the standings. Gibson was 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 19 starts with the Rangers before winning his first start with Philadelphia. He was able to cruise through 6.2 innings in which he allowed two runs to the Pirates, in large part because his team provided him with 15 runs of support. However, before that win, his team lost four of his starts because of his 6.26 ERA in July. Gibson has appeared in just one postseason game in his career, getting tagged for three runs in one inning against the Yankees in the 2019 ALDS. This game will have a playoff feel to it, and we look for Gibson to once again get roughed up in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

New York’s Marcus Stroman (7-10, 2.80) ranks ninth in ERA and 22nd with a 1.13 WHIP. The team has lost four of his last five starts and his previous two starts against the Phillies. However, Stroman started the year with back-to-back wins over Philadelphia after allowing just one run over 12 innings. Stroman has allowed just two earned runs over his last eight innings (spanning two starts) against the Phillies, so it is not like Philadelphia’s bats are rocking him. Current Phillies hitters are batting just .237 and slugging .329 against him, and we look for him to pitch well once again.

The under has cashed in each of Stroman’s last four starts, and we are hoping that trend means he does his part in shutting down the Phillies offense this time around.

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100)

The Baltimore Orioles are coming off a day’s rest for this series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays. While that should be a good thing, it is a moot point for the lowly Orioles, who are 5-12 after an off day. The Rays are just 7-7 after a day off this year, but they will be the more highly motivated bunch as they try to further distance themselves from the rest of the AL East competition.

The Rays have done precisely what good teams should do to poor teams like the Orioles. They have won eight of their nine head-to-head matchups and are 6-1 in their last seven road games against the Orioles.

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup is a battle of lefties, as Tampa Bay’s Ryan Yarbrough (6-4, 4.58) faces Baltimore’s John Means (5-3, 2.84). Early on in the season, Means looked like he was cruising to an All-Star appearance. However, he spent six weeks on the IL and has looked rusty since returning. In three starts post-injury, Means is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA and just ten strikeouts in 17.2 innings. Yarbrough is responsible for Tampa Bay’s only loss to Baltimore this season, as he was tagged for six runs in 5.2 innings in a July 19th home loss. Look for Yarbrough to rely on his slider more this time around, as opponents have a well-hit average of .051 against it this season, which ranks best among starting pitchers with at least 52 innings pitched.

The Orioles are winless in Means’ last five starts against teams with a winning record, and Tampa Bay will add to that winless streak in a big way tonight.

Marlins-Rockies UNDER 9.5 runs (-110)

Taking an under at Coors Field seems blasphemous, but not when you consider that the under is 31-23-2 in Colorado’s 56 home games this year. The Rockies now face a Marlins team whose .676 OPS is third-worst in the majors and who has scored the fourth-fewest runs.

German Marquez (9-8, 3.58) has a 2.42 ERA in his last seven starts, and his ERA, WHIP, OBA, and HR/9 ratio are all better at Coors Field than on the road. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (6-9, 3.12) has flown largely under-the-radar given that he plays for a poor last-place team, but he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. He is a flamethrower whose average velocity on his fastball (97.7 MPH) is the highest among all qualified starting pitchers. He has been extra tough on righties, holding them to a .215 OBA and allowing just four home runs to right-handed batters in 68 innings.

The under is 6-0-2 in Alcantara’s last eight starts as an underdog and has cashed nine of the last ten times the Rockies have been favorites. Look for a low-scoring game in the altitude tonight.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.