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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, September 24th (2021)

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With just ten days left in the Major League Baseball regular season, it seems an appropriate time to check in on some season-long statistics and see if there were any discernible trends from the season. Based on Dave Tuley’s tweet, it is fascinating to see how closely split the over/unders are to this point.

To end the week, we are backing two totals and a first five innings moneyline that has been two days in the making.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 175-142-8 (+17.60 units) 

Rangers-Orioles OVER 9 runs (-115)

The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles are not just two of the worst teams in baseball, but they have two of the worst pitching staffs. The two teams rank 25th and 30th respectively in terms of team ERA. Given their histories of playing high-scoring games against each other, we like for another slugfest to break out.

Texas’s Spencer Howard (0-4, 6.86) faces Baltimore’s Alexander Wells (1-3, 7.96) in an uninspiring pitching matchup. The Orioles are 1-5 in Wells’ last six starts as an underdog, and the over is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five games against teams from the A.L. West. Howard has started 13 games this season (appeared in 17 total) and has not won a single decision, which speaks to his ineffectiveness. He is 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA in six starts since being acquired by Texas, and Baltimore’s lineup with Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle will be waiting to pounce.

The over is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these teams in Baltimore, and there should be plenty of runs scored in what will be one of the more meaningless games of the day.

Detroit Tigers First Five Innings ML (-110)

We backed the Detroit Tigers and starting pitcher Casey Mize in their series finale against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday, but a rainout forced Mize’s start to today. Mize and the Tigers should be a well-rested bunch having two consecutive days off. The Tigers have not looked much like a third-place team or a team four games under .500 of late. Detroit’s schedule has been murderous for the last two weeks, with 11th consecutive games against a first-place team. The Tigers have played seven games against the Rays, two against the Brewers, and two against the White Sox, and are a combined 8-3 in those 11 games. Facing the Royals coming off of a schedule like that will see, like a much less daunting task.

Mize (7-8, 3.64) leads all Tigers starters in most major categories, including innings pitched (143.1), WAR (3.3), WHIP (1.14), and ERA. However, the team is being cautious with his innings down the stretch, as he has not thrown more than three innings in his last three starts. Thus, we opt for Detroit’s first five innings moneyline odds instead of the full game to take the Tigers bullpen more out of the equation.

New York Mets Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-120)

The New York Mets have had an anemic offense all season, ranking 28th in runs scored and 20th or worse in batting average and OPS. While they have not yet officially been eliminated from the N.L. East division race, their playoff hopes are all but vanquished after a recent 1-7 streak. They have scored more than four runs just twice in that span and have not won back-to-back games since a six-game winning streak from August 28-September 4. Their team total is somewhat high, especially since they are not facing one of Milwaukee’s “big three” starting pitchers. However, Milwaukee’s Eric Lauer should have no issue dominating this lineup.

Lauer (6-5, 3.03) has been dominant in four September starts, going 2-0 with a 1.09 ERA. He has held opponents to an OBA of .136 and pitched to a 0.69 WHIP in that span and has 23 strikeouts to six walks.

The under has cashed in the last six meetings between these teams, and we trust Lauer to do his part in keeping the scoring down.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.