Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Monday, April 5th (2021)
The first series of the season have been completed, and with the Mets and Nationals excluded since their series was postponed, just three unbeaten teams (Orioles, Astros, Phillies) remain. The most surprising unbeaten team is the Orioles, who have a one-game lead in the AL East for the first time since 2017. Their three-game sweep of Boston also marked just the second time in franchise history that the Red Sox started a season 0-3 at Fenway Park.
Let the standings serve as a reminder of how difficult it is to bet on baseball, that even the best of teams lose 60+ games on average in a season. Also, it is an excellent time to remind bettors to be wary of huge moneylines. Even though the Dodgers are off to a 3-1 start, a bettor would only be up 0.25 units if they wagered one unit on them (at an average of -240 ML odds) in every game thus far. The Dodgers may very well win 100 or more games this year and still have a chance of not being profitable for bettors at season’s end because of their inflated odds.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Monday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 4-2 (+1.60 units)
Texas Rangers ML (+140)
The Texas Rangers are already following a similar script to last season when they were a Major League-worst 6-24 on the road. The Rangers lost two out of three in Kansas City over the weekend but head home to the comfort of Globe Life Field, where they were 16-14 last year. They catch the Toronto Blue Jays in a tough spot playing their fourth straight road game to open the year. Plus, Toronto’s odds are somewhat inflated after they took two out of three from the Yankees, and the Blue Jays may suffer a bit of a letdown in the series opener after facing their most hated rivals.
Blue Jays starter Steven Matz is making his debut with the team after spending the last six seasons with the Mets. New York let Matz go primarily because of a 9.68 ERA that booted him out of the rotation after just six starts. Matz’s counterpart, Mike Foltynewicz, is also making his debut in a Rangers uniform. Foltynewicz enters this start with the momentum of a great spring where he allowed just three runs over two starts.
The Rangers are 4-1 in their last five games as a home underdog and 9-4 SU in their last 13 games versus AL East opponents. Take the value with the plus odds on an inspired home team in their home opener.
Philadelphia Phillies Team Total UNDER 2.5 runs (+112)
New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom had to wait an extra four days to make his season debut after the team’s series against the Nationals was postponed. He is looking for his third Cy Young Award in the last four seasons and opens with a great opponent to get off to a hot start against.
deGrom is 8-1 with a 2.38 ERA in 17 career starts against the Phillies. His .889 winning percentage against them is his highest against any team he has more than three career decisions against. Though deGrom will likely be on a pitch count, as most pitchers are early in the season, his leash will be a bit longer than most, given how much of a workload he has proven to be able to handle over the years.
The under is 5-0 in Philadelphia’s last five games. The Phillies have scored just nine runs through their first three games, and the law of averages says their output tonight will be lower than their three runs per game average since they are facing one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Giants-Padres OVER 8.5 runs (-104)
While the Mets have a bonafide ace toeing the rubber, the Giants’ and Padres’ starting pitchers are anything but. Anthony DeSclafani is making his Giants debut after spending the last five seasons in Cincinnati. He is coming off a career-worst 7.22 ERA and 1.693 WHIP in nine games (seven starts) last year. Desclafani is opposed by San Diego’s Adrian Morejon, who has spent his entire career up to this point as a reliever. The Padres plan on stretching him out so that he can help at the back end of the rotation, as he has never pitched more than three innings in a game.
Current Giants are hitting .368 in 19 combined at-bats against Morejon. The over is 6-1-1 in San Francisco’s last eight road games versus a left-handed starter. Also, the over is 9-4 in the Padres’ last 13 home games with the total set between 7.0-8.5 runs.
Both offenses have averaged more than four runs a game to this point this season, and that was with facing their opponents’ best pitchers at the top of the rotation. With each team’s bullpens likely needing to get the majority of outs, this relatively low total looks juicy.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.