Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Monday, August 3rd

It seems funny that just ten games into the season, many of us (myself included) find ourselves speaking in absolute terms. Examples include, “Aaron Judge is running away with the AL MVP award,” or “the Mets look finished.” We would be through just 27 games of a normal 162-game season at this point. However, the perception of the season as much shorter changes our long-term thinking drastically. That’s just something to keep in mind if you’re thinking about making any futures bets based on what you have seen thus far.

With just ten games on the slate today, we will have a smaller card than usual. And just a warning — we’re thinking a little outside the box with them today.

Here are my top MLB betting plays for Monday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook).

YTD: 22-15-1 (+6.26 units)

Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>

Phillies-Yankees: Will the Home Team Bat in the Bottom of the 9th? (NO -198)

Whenever Gerrit Cole is on the mound, bank on some very inflated moneylines. This was true in Houston, and it will be true in New York with how well the Yankees have been playing. Some bettors may lay the steep -300 odds on the moneyline and not even think twice about it. This -198 price tag is the steepest we have laid all season, but I obviously feel good about its chances.

You’re essentially taking the Yankees moneyline, but it comes with much better odds. The odds are significantly lower because there is a chance that the game is tied or that the Phillies have a ninth-inning lead. But bettors should ask themselves if the risk of those two scenarios is really worth hedging the bet by laying odds that are over 100 units higher?

The Phillies have not played a game since July 26th, as their last eight games have been postponed due to coronavirus concerns. As a result, they could be rusty as they re-adjusting to game speed. That would be difficult to do under any circumstances, but with Cole on the mound, it’s even harder. The Yankees seem invincible right now, and they’ll bring their league-leading six-game winning streak into this matchup. Look for them to have this game in hand by the time the ninth inning rolls around.

Mets-Braves: First Inning Total Runs (ZERO runs -115)

While we must wait until the ninth inning to learn the result of our first bet, this wager should be wrapped up in the game’s first half hour. Once again, we feel the need to get creative, as Jacob deGrom’s starts for the Mets typically carry the same steep odds as Gerrit Cole’s do for the Yankees.

In yesterday’s column, I argued that we wanted nothing to do with the Mets at this point, as their abysmal play inspires no confidence. I said this even before the news of Yoenis Cespedes opting out for the rest of the season broke.

I was very tempted to play the Braves moneyline in this one, considering they are throwing their ace, Mike Soroka. However, Jacob deGrom is perhaps the only saving grace the Mets have at this point, and he is certainly capable of throwing a gem.

Instead, the -115 odds for zero runs in the first inning looks pretty enticing. These same two starters combined for 11 scoreless innings on Opening Day. Neither pitcher allowed a run until the fourth inning in their second starts. Thus, they have shown a penchant for starting games strong and keeping hitters off-balance the first time through the order. In addition, the team’s best bats at the top of the order have struggled, with Pete Alonso just 2-24 against the Braves and Ronald Acuna, Jr. hitting just .195. Take the bet on the scoreless first inning and watch the rest of the game risk-free.

San Diego Padres Run Line/Total Runs Double (Padres +1.5/Over 7.5 +250)

To round out the betting card, we suggest an interesting parlay with great value. The San Diego Padres kick off a very important series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. If they want to establish themselves as a serious threat in the NL West, they’ll need to do well here. Three of L.A.’s last four games have seen eight or more runs scored, while the Padres have reached that mark in six of their last seven. Yes, San Diego benefited from three games in Coors Field, but their offense has averaged 6.3 runs per game in all other games to date.

While both teams send one of their best pitchers to the mound (Walker Buehler and Chris Paddack), we like the bit of extra value that the over carries in this parlay. The full game over/under is eight runs, so in a sense, the sportsbooks are giving us an extra half run of value. And just in case the Dodgers do go on to win, we will take the added insurance of the 1.5 runs on the runline.

The Padres come in a little devalued after losing two out of three in Colorado, but they played well in their only home series to date — they won three out of four against the Diamondbacks. We’re also banking on the Dodgers to be a little weary from travel in the opener, as this is their third straight road series.

View more game odds and place bets at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.