Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Monday, July 27
And then there were none. As the first weekend of the shortened MLB season finished, there were no undefeated teams left. Alas, cast-off teams like the Orioles, Tigers, Marlins, and Rockies find themselves in first place. I know, it has only been three games. But that’s five percent of the regular-season games!
Any way you slice it, there has been some money to be made (or lost) by betting on the biggest underdogs (or favorites) thus far this season. Will oddsmakers adjust and not set as many steep moneylines? The first Monday of the season brings us an almost-full slate of 10 games to sift through. On the heels of a 3-1-1 day, we look to be even better today.
Here are my top MLB betting plays for Monday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook).
YTD: 5-4-1 (+0.63 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Tampa Bay ML (-150)
Why in God’s name are the Tampa Bay Rays -150 favorites over the Atlanta Braves? The Braves offense just exploded for 14 runs and took an important two out of three games from the Mets. The only game they lost in the series was an excusable 1-0 pitcher’s duel to the best pitcher in baseball right now in Jacob deGrom. So maybe the better question is, why in God’s name am I betting the Rays?
For starters, it is never easy to play a night game and then travel down the coast only to arrive at your hotel in the wee hours of the morning. Speaking of starters, the Rays have a big edge in the pitching matchup, as Tyler Glasnow gets to challenge the Braves with his filthy arsenal of pitches. In contrast, the Braves are sending Mike Foltynewicz to the mound. Plus, Tampa is playing at home once again, so they did not have to travel. In addition, they can build off the momentum of erasing a four-run deficit to beat the Blue Jays in 10 innings yesterday.
Chicago-Cleveland UNDER 9.5 runs (-105)
The Chicago White Sox are coming off a series that saw each game score 15, 13, and 16 runs, respectively. And now you guessed it, we are taking the UNDER 9.5 runs in their next game. Can you say “regression to the mean,†anyone? The Cleveland Indians will have something to do with that, as they have allowed just five runs in their first three games thus far.
Dylan Cease and Aaron Civale are a pair of young and talented right-handers, and their relative unfamiliarity to the hitters should give them an advantage. One of Cease’s 14 starts as a rookie came against the Indians, and he recorded a career-best 11 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Civale pitched to a 2.34 ERA in 10 starts last season. That was the lowest ERA among all American League rookies who threw 50-plus innings.
Kansas City ML (+118)
Are the Detroit Tigers for real? They impressed in the first series of the year, and they took two of three games from playoff-hopeful Cincinnati. However, there is value to be had in Kansas City’s moneyline, and it has everything to do with Detroit’s starting pitcher. Michael Fulmer has not pitched in a regular-season game since 2018, as he used all last year to recover from Tommy John surgery.
In addition, the Tigers have announced that they will ease him back and limit him to roughly three innings. Thus, many bettors will blindly bet on the former Rookie of the Year without realizing that his impact on the game will be minimal. In addition, Royals starter Mike Montgomery is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four starts against the Tigers. While the perception of these teams is different after just three games, make the contrarian pick with the Royals.
View more game odds and place bets at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.