Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Monday, September 21st
Monday marks the beginning of the last week of MLB’s regular season. Five American League teams have officially clinched their playoff berths while just two National League teams have done the same. Say what you will about the new MLB playoff format for this year, but it will surely keep many more teams involved through the last week than normally would be.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Monday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 80-76-1 (+10.11 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Rangers-Angels UNDER 4.5 runs- First Five Innings (-103)
Much like yesterday’s play on the under in the Tigers game involving Matthew Boyd, we are playing another under involving another poor pitcher. Texas’s Kyle Gibson (2-5, 5.18 ERA) has struggled mightily this year but seems to have turned a corner lately. He is coming off what is easily his best start of the season, throwing a four-hit complete-game shutout against the Houston Astros. He also tied his season-high with nine strikeouts in that start. He is opposed by Los Angeles’s Dylan Bundy (5-3, 3.12 ERA) who has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. Our under on the Tigers-Indians would have hit if we kept it to the five innings line as the bullpen game up four runs in the last two innings. We will learn our lesson this time and stick with the five innings line.
Phillies ML (-150)
With a pitching mismatch like this one, it is shocking that the Phillies can be had at such short odds all things considered. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler (4-0, 2.62 ERA) opposes Washington’s Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 7.38 ERA). Wheeler has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start this season while also averaging more than six innings per start. The Phillies have won three of Wheeler’s last four starts. It is the exact opposite for Sanchez, who has only allowed three runs or less once in his last four starts and the Nationals are 1-3 in that span. The Phillies have a half-game lead on both the Reds and Giants for the eighth playoff spot in the National League and should be the much more motivated team than the Nationals who are looking to play spoiler.
Reds ML (-136)
The Cincinnati Reds have won three series in a row and seven of their last eight games overall. Starter Luis Castillo (3-5, 3.03 ERA) has won his last three starts after a poor beginning to the season. In those three starts, he has allowed three earned runs over 22 innings while striking out 24 batters. His home ERA on the season is 1.50 and allowed just one earned run over six innings in his last start against Milwaukee. Despite each team coming in with .500 records, the Brewers actually have a better chance (58.2%) to make the playoffs than the Reds do (51.9%). However, Cincinnati has a 4-3 overall record against the Brewers this season, and with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball on the mound, we like the value in their -136 moneyline odds.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.