Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, April 8th (2021)
After a getaway day on Wednesday saw 13 games played in the early or late afternoon, eight new series begin today. The Diamondbacks and Rockies are the only teams continuing their series from earlier this week. All of the other eight games see teams playing in their home openers, and we are once again treated to seven games in the afternoon slot.
With yesterday’s 4-3 walk-off win in extra innings, the Oakland Athletics won their first game in seven tries and put to bed the notion that they would surpass the 1988 Baltimore Orioles’ 21-game losing streak to start a season. And of our bets that went 3-0 yesterday (our third profitable day out of four for this column), we cited the fact that the Cincinnati Reds hot offense was capable of covering the eight-run total all by themselves. After their 11-run outburst, their 57 runs scored through six games is tied for the sixth-most of any team since 1901. Whose momentum are we riding today?
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 9-6 (+2.66 units)
Colorado Rockies ML (-118)
The Colorado Rockies are struggling to start the year, but that will happen to most teams who had to open the season with four games against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Oddsmakers seem a bit soured on the Rockies with this short moneyline, but I am not sure they should be considering the pitching mismatch.
Colorado’s Jon Gray allowed one run in five innings while striking out seven in his first start against the Dodgers. Gray’s record at Coors Field is much better than his road record through his first seven seasons. He is 26-13 (.667) at home and 19-24 (.442) on the road. And despite the inflated scoring at Coors Field, his ERA is only .08 higher at home than on the road.
Arizona’s Merrill Kelly lasted just four innings and allowed three runs in his first start. San Diego’s lineup made Kelly work as he labored through innings of 23 and 28 pitches. Four Rockies are a combined .367 with a .733 slugging percentage against him, including Charlie Blackmon’s 3-for-6.
The Rockies are 61-29 in their last 90 games as a home favorite, so they have proven to return good value in this spot.
Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs (+114)
The Minnesota Twins were an MLB-best 24-7 at home last year. They head home for their home opener after taking two of three games in their first two road series to start the year.
Twins manager Rocco Baldelli caught a lot of flack for taking starting pitcher Jose Berrios out of the game after six perfect innings in his first start against the Brewers. Berrios matched a career-high with 12 strikeouts in that outing. His numbers against Seattle are somewhat modest, as he has a 1-2 record with a 4.02 ERA in five career starts against them. Berrios is 28-17 at home (3.57 ERA) vs. 21-21 with a 4.71 ERA on the road in his career. He is a fast starter most seasons, as his 3.43 ERA in April is the second-lowest of any month in his career.
Minnesota will face Seattle’s Marco Gonzales, who allowed eight hits and five runs in six innings on Opening Day. In his last start against the Twins in 2019, he was rocked for six runs over five innings. Minnesota’s +16 run differential is the third-highest in the league thus far, and a lot of it has to do with a locked-in Nelson Cruz.
Royals-White Sox OVER 8.5 runs (-113)
If Kansas City Royals starter Brad Keller pitches anything like he did on Opening Day, the Chicago White Sox will cover the 8.5-run over/under by themselves. Keller was rocked on Opening Day, allowing six runs on nine hits in 1 â…“ innings against Texas. The 1 â…“ innings pitched was the shortest Opening Day start in franchise history.
Chicago’s Lance Lynn fared much better on Opening Day, allowing no earned runs in 4 ⅔ innings. However, Lynn labored through those 14 outs, striking out six but throwing 99 pitches. Kansas City hitters are a combined 24-for-87 (.276) against Lynn but are slugging .494 as half of the 24 hits have gone for extra bases. Lynn has a career 4.50 ERA in five starts at US Cellular (all as a visitor), his fourth-highest ERA at any American League ballpark. He has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, as he did not allow a home run there in 30 innings. However, Lynn is likely to be touched up some as March/April is the month with his highest career winning percentage(.679) but his second-highest ERA (3.85) of any month.
The over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings between these teams, including a 6-1 over record in their previous seven meetings in Chicago. Kansas City’s third-ranked bullpen 1.86 ERA is worrisome, but the hope is that the White Sox do most of their damage while Keller is still in the game.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.