Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, April 6th (2021)
We have not talked much about futures odds in these articles, but Los Angeles pitcher/slugger Shohei Ohtani’s performance on Sunday night had us thinking about his place in the American League MVP talks. Ohtani moved quickly up the odds list for AL MVP following Sunday’s game. He hit 101 MPH on the radar gun and hit a home run at the plate with an exit velocity of over 115 MPH. There are no other players who can impact the game like that, which is why Ohtani’s odds in many places shortened from +5000 in the preseason to +1800 currently.
At some point, sportsbooks will take these odds off the board. But let this serve as a reminder not to get too carried away with one individual performance. Nelson Cruz hit a grand slam yesterday in a Twins rout, and the team is now off to a 3-1 start. Giancarlo Stanton also hit a grand slam in a Yankees win, and his team is projected to win 100 games. The bottom line is that oddsmakers are going to take advantage of recency bias all year long, so make a prediction based on a season-long output, and enjoy the ride.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 4-5 (-1.40 units)
Houston Astros ML (-117)
After blowing a 5-3 lead yesterday, the Houston Astros suffered their first loss of the season. The fashion in which they lost yesterday is a big reason why they are a reasonable price, even though they send their best pitcher to the mound tonight.
Zack Greinke dazzled on Opening Day against the Oakland Athletics, allowing just three baserunners in six scoreless innings. Greinke is 6-5 with a 3.98 ERA in 16 career appearances (15 starts) against the Los Angeles Angels. Though Justin Upton has three career home runs off him, Greinke has limited the damage to Los Angeles’s other best hitters, as Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are a combined 7-for-33 (.212 BA) against him in their careers.
Greinke is opposed by Los Angeles’s Griffin Canning, the Gold Glove pitcher who had a 3.99 ERA in 11 starts last season. He has not earned a decision in three career starts against the Astros but has a 6.35 ERA and has averaged less than four innings per start. If Canning cannot go deep into the game again, the Astros should feast off an Angels bullpen that ranked 21st in bullpen ERA last year.
The Astros are just 2-5 in their last seven games in Los Angeles, but this price with this significant pitching mismatch is too good to ignore.
Orioles-Yankees UNDER 8 runs (+100)
After scoring eight runs through their first three games, the New York Yankees exploded for seven runs against the Baltimore Orioles last night. However, this is still an offense that struggles historically in April, and especially against pitchers they have not seen a lot.
Baltimore’s Dean Kremer has held New York’s offense to a .167 batting average in 30 combined plate appearances. Keeping the Yankees in the ballpark is crucial when facing their potent lineup, and Yankees hitters have just three extra-base hits off Kremer and no home runs.
All of this narrative, and we still have not mentioned that Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is toeing the rubber. After allowing a game-tying home run in the sixth inning against the Blue Jays, Cole earned a no-decision on Opening Day. He threw 97 pitches, so he looks wholly stretched out and is ready to go deep into the game. Cole is 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA in five career starts against Baltimore. That is the lowest ERA against any team that he has made more than one start against.
The over is 24-9 in their last 33 meetings in New York and 51-16-1 in their previous 68 meetings overall. However, not many of those games were started by a pitcher of Cole’s caliber.
Diamondbacks-Rockies OVER 10.5 runs (-113)
Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Luke Weaver was dreadful last year, going 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA. The nine losses were the most in the league, and Weaver’s spring efforts did not inspire confidence heading into the regular season. Weaver allowed 14 earned runs in 14 2/3 spring innings, and his WHIP of 1.636 in those innings left something to be desired.
The Diamondbacks will face Rockies ace German Marquez, but he had trouble with his control on Opening Day, walking six in four innings. Marquez also walked eight in 19 innings in the spring and posted a 5.68 ERA. With Marquez not appearing entirely on track and in rhythm to start the season, Arizona’s offense should be able to do their part in the scoring. Current Diamondbacks have had plenty of success against Marquez in the past, hitting .371 and slugging .664 in 116 combined career at-bats.
The over is 4-1 in the teams’ last five meetings and 3-0-1 in the previous four games between them at Coors Field. Do not be intimidated by the high number in this one.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.