Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 3rd (2021)
Sarah Langs of MLB.com wrote a brilliant piece the other day about historically what it means to be in first place on August 1st. For those of you with futures bets you are tracking, Langs summarized that since 1996 (which was the first full season with one Wild Card team), 74% of teams who were leading their divisions on August 1st when on to win their division. For those keeping track, the teams leading on August 1st were the Rays, White Sox, Astros, Mets, Brewers, and Giants.
Conventional math says somewhere between one to two of those teams will not eventually win their divisions if this year plays to the same law of averages of the last 25 seasons. According to DraftKings’ futures odds, just one team (Dodgers) is the favorite to win their division that is not currently leading. One could argue one or two divisional races are as good as over if you feel the White Sox and Brewers have separated themselves enough at the moment. Will the Dodgers edge out the Giants over the last two months? Can the Mets stay atop the NL East despite their rash of injuries and recent mediocre play?
The news of Gerrit Cole testing positive for coronavirus voided what was one of our best bets, so we are down to two plays.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 123-110-5 (-2.45 units)
Red Sox-Tigers UNDER 10 runs (-110)
The Red Sox and Tigers each had yesterday off, which many bettors will assume means good things for both offenses. However, it also means each teams’ best bullpen arms are well-rested and will be used aggressively in trying to secure the series opener.
With Boston being favored on the road, the trends also support the under. The under is 13-7-1 in the 21 games the Red Sox have been a road favorite and is 22-15-2 in the 39 games the Tigers have been a home underdog.
Garrett Richards (6-6, 5.15) takes the mound for Boston, looking to bounce back from allowing eight earned runs in his last 9.2 innings. However, both starts came against the hard-hitting Toronto Blue Jays, while Detroit ranks in the bottom half of the league in batting average and OPS. He is opposed by Wily Peralta (3-2, 3.64), who has made six of his eight starts on the road. It is a small sample size of home starts, but it is an intriguing one, as Peralta has allowed just four hits in 9.2 scoreless innings at home this year.
Though the over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams, the under has cashed in each of Detroit’s last four home games. The under is also 4-0 in Boston’s last four games against a right-handed starter, and we love the contrarian nature of an under bet in this spot.
Seattle Mariners ML (+140)
Certain betting trends in every game look appealing but mean little with respect to the game being played that day. And then there is a stat like this that is too good to pass up.
The Elias Sports Bureau posted this tweet before Seattle’s dominant 8-2 victory in the series opener. This trend looks even better in today’s matchup that once again sees Seattle as big underdogs, despite having the edge in the starting pitching matchup. All-Star Yusei Kikuchi (6-6, 4.01) takes the mound for Seattle, and his road ERA is a full run lower than his home ERA. In addition, he has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four road starts while facing two of the A.L.’s best lineups in the White Sox and Blue Jays in that span. The Rays counter with rookie Luis Patino (2-2, 4.26), who has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts.
With Seattle’s dominance in Tampa Bay and with the better pitcher on the mound, one should not pass up the opportunity for plus-money odds in that situation.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.