Navigate

Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, September 14th (2021)

by |

Major League Baseball gets the sports slate all to themselves for the next couple of nights. You know that the postseason is right around the corner when three teams (Brewers, Rays, White Sox) can all have a magic number in the single digits to win their division after tonight.

We get a little bit crazy with today’s picks, as we opt for a runline on a team with no postseason aspirations and a moneyline wager that fades the team with the best record in the American League. 

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 166-134-7 (+15.68 units) 

Washington Nationals -1.5 runs (+135)

The Washington Nationals have owned the Miami Marlins at home of late. They are 39-14 in their last 53 home games against the Marlins, despite getting shut out in last night’s series opener. Tonight they face one of Miami’s worst starting pitchers and counter with a starter who has recently had the Marlins’ number.

Miami’s Jesus Luzardo (5-7, 6.72) is 1-3 with a 9.31 ERA in six away appearances (three starts this year). In fact, Luzardo’s 8.76 ERA on the road since the start of last season is the highest among starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. His previous six appearances have come at home in the friendly confines of Marlins Park but will be in for a rude awakening in tonight’s rare road start. Though Washington is just 4-14 in their last 18 home games, they should welcome Miami’s lefty with open arms. Washington leads the majors with a .807 team OPS (entering Monday), and their team .272 batting average against lefties ranks second. 

Washington counters with Erick Fedde (6-9, 5.31), who has allowed just one earned run in 12.1 combined innings (two starts) against the Marlins this year. Unlike most starting pitchers, Fedde has been tougher as the game has gone on. He ranks third among starting pitchers with at least 18 innings pitched with a .216 slugging percentage allowed in late innings since the start of 2019. 

Given Fedde’s dominance of the Marlins and Miami’s struggles in Washington, we choose to opt for the better value with the runline instead of the Nationals’ moneyline odds. 

Toronto Blue Jays ML (-135)

The Toronto Blue Jays are baseball’s hottest team at the moment. They enter tonight’s contest against the Tampa Bay Rays having won four straight games and 12 of their last 13. Though the Rays are still the A.L.’s best team and are not in danger of losing their big division lead, they seem to be coasting to the finish line, having lost four of their last five games. 

Tampa Bay is 4-0 in starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen’s (2-1, 3.25) last four road starts. However, Rasmussen has gone five innings just twice all season, so there will once again be a lot of pressure put on Tampa Bay’s bullpen that has had to work a lot of innings lately. Toronto counters with innings-eater Jose Berrios (11-7, 3.52), who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. This season, Berrios has been especially tough on right-handed hitters, as his .197 OBA against righties is the 14th-best among starting pitchers. In addition, lefties are hitting just .100 against Berrios in his last two starts, which is sixth-best in baseball over the previous two weeks.

The Rays are 7-3 in their last ten road games against the Blue Jays, but the Blue Jays are 5-0 in their previous five games as a home favorite. Thus, we look for the more desperate Blue Jays team fighting for their playoff lives to be victorious again tonight.

Astros-Rangers OVER 9 runs (-105)

Houston Astros starting pitcher Zack Greinke (11-5, 3.66) takes the mound for his first start since August 29 after being placed on the COVID-19 IL. In his last start before going on the I.L., he was tagged for six runs on nine hits over four innings against tonight’s opponent, the Texas Rangers. Greinke is just 2-4 with a 3.21 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) on the road at Texas, and his rust after a long layoff is a significant contributing factor to us liking the over.

The other reason we like the over is that Jordan Lyles (8-11, 5.43) takes the mound for Texas. Lyles has not beaten the Astros since 2019 and has pitched to a 4.81 ERA in seven career appearances (five starts) against them. Lyles has allowed the highest OPS (.854) of any qualified starting pitcher this season, and his 5.43 ERA is the second-highest.

The over is 4-0 in Lyles’ last four starts against teams with a winning record and is 5-1 in his previous six starts as an underdog. Texas is a surprising 6-2 in their last eight games, which has us confident that they will do their part in scoring runs tonight. In addition, the over is 9-3-2 in their previous 14 meetings against the Astros at home, so they have a history of playing high-scoring games.

MLB Prop Bets


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.