Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, September 29th
The 2020 MLB playoffs begin with four mouth-watering American League matchups. We all know that this year’s playoff format is different, namely because there are 16 total playoff teams. However, another change that may have flown under-the-radar is the fact that every round of playoffs until the World Series will have no off-days. Thus, there will not be enough rest for starting pitchers to utilize the strategy that the Washington Nationals used last year and get through the playoffs with mostly using three starting pitchers. Keep this in mind when making futures wagers as something as subtle as playing on consecutive days would seem to favor teams with deeper starting rotations.
A deep starting rotation will not be necessary for the Wild Card round of the playoffs this year with each series being a best-of-three. Therefore, every game is vital and the shorter series could lead to more volatility and bigger upsets.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 86-84-1 (+9.08 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Minnesota Twins -1 runs (-115)
The Minnesota Twins could not have asked for a better first-round opponent all things considered. The Twins will benefit from having all three games of this series played at home, where they were a league-best 24-7. Their opponent, the Houston Astros, were the second-worst road team in the American League at 9-23. If the playoffs were seeded under more normal circumstances, the Astros would have snuck in as the No. 8 seed at 29-31. However, they were granted the No. 6 seed simply by virtue of finishing second in the AL West. Minnesota sends Kenta Maeda to the mound (6-1, 2.70 ERA) to oppose Houston’s Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA). Maeda pitched to a 3-0 record and 1.91 ERA in five home starts this year while Greinke was 0-2 with a 4.28 ERA on the road. The Twins are 10-0 SU in their last ten games following a home loss. With Minnesota’s moneyline odds at -162, we will instead opt for better value with the alternate run line and still get the insurance of a push if they win by exactly one run.
Oakland Athletics ML (+112)
The Oakland A’s have been an overlooked baseball team all year long, and are still not being given respect as home underdogs despite earning the AL’s No. 2 seed. Yes, White Sox ace Lucas Giolito (4-3, 4.38 ERA) is on the mound and his road numbers are actually better than his home numbers. Giolito has pitched to a 2-0 record with a 2.79 ERA in five road starts. However, his opponent Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA) has been exceptional at home with a 3-1 record and 2.40 ERA in six home starts. Bettors may be alarmed to learn that Luzardo has pitched past the sixth inning just once in his last five starts. However, with how quickly managers go to the bullpen in the postseason lately, that may actually play to Oakland’s strength. Oakland has the major’s best bullpen based on ERA (2.72) and has power arm after power arm they can throw at you. While the starting pitching matchup may look like a mismatch on paper, it all gets thrown out the window in the playoffs. Thus, we will side with the third-best home team in the majors at plus-money odds.
Yankees-Indians First Five Innings UNDER 2.5 runs (+112)
In case you are unaware of this ridiculous stat, the first five innings under is 11-1 in Cleveland ace Shane Bieber’s 12 starts this year. Bieber (8-1, 1.63 ERA) struck out 41.1% of all batters he has faced, which would be a record if he maintained that over a 162-game season. He is an absolute shoo-in for the AL Cy Young award (I believe someone predicted that here) and is opposed by the man who could very well finish second in Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA) has been burned by the long ball more often than he is accustomed to, as he allowed eight home runs in his six road starts. However, an Indians offense that ranked 28th in runs per game and 27th in team OPS is unlikely to take advantage of any blunders. Thus, take the bullpens out of the equations in this one and watch the brilliance of arguably the best pitchers duel you will see all playoffs.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.