Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, April 7th (2021)
Jacob deGrom’s start on Monday night serves as a reminder that laying big odds with aces of starting staffs early in the season is a risky proposition. With even the best of pitchers not yet stretched out to 100 pitchers, most starting pitchers are being removed from games early, with managers relying on bullpens to get nine or more outs in most cases. Thus, a starting pitcher’s gem can turn into an offensive explosion once the bullpen’s inferior arms take over.
deGrom has allowed one earned run or fewer in 94 of his 184 starts, which is the most in baseball since his debut in 2014. Since 2018, deGrom also has the most starts (eight) where he worked at least six innings and allowed no earned runs, yet earned a no-decision. Behind him on that list are Walker Buehler (seven) and Hyun Jin Ryu (six). At least early in the season, the moral of the story is that one should think hard about wagering on a team’s first five innings line instead of a full game line with a pitcher they love on the mound. With a first five innings bet, it is much more likely that the starting pitcher will be in full control of those 15 outs and removes bullpens entirely from the equation for the most part.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 6-6 (-0.66 units)
Pirates-Reds OVER 8 runs (-118)
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Chad Kuhl was limited to three innings in his Opening Day start against the Cubs. He struggled with his control, issuing three walks in the first two innings. Kuhl is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in seven career starts against the Reds. However, Reds hitters are batting .299 and slugging .545 in 77 combined at-bats against Kuhl, and three different players have homered off him in their career.
Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo also had a rough Opening Day start, allowing eight runs in 3.1 innings. Castillo could not capitalize on the momentum he had in the spring when he posted a 1.93 ERA. Castillo is a slow starter in his career, as his 4.78 career ERA in April/March is .33 higher than any month. Also, his 4.05 ERA in the first half of the season is higher than his career 3.56 ERA in the second half.
Though the under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these teams, it is hard to ignore how explosive Cincinnati’s offense has been of late. The Reds have scored at least six runs in four of their first five games, and the over is 6-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last nine games overall. They have a decent chance to push this game over the total by themselves.
Giants-Padres First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 runs (-139)
In this article’s introduction, we spoke about the importance of capitalizing on a first five innings line before bullpens got involved. That could not be any more true than for a start involving San Diego’s Blake Snell. Snell was yanked before earning the win in his first start after 85 pitches and eight strikeouts over 4 ⅔ innings. It is clear the Padres will be careful with their prized offseason acquisition, so do not expect Snell to go more than 85 pitches once again. San Francisco’s lineup’s unfamiliarity is appealing for the under, as only three Giants have ever faced Snell in their careers. The most successful of the three is Wilmer Flores (3-for-5), who is the only one to get a hit off him.
Giants starter Kevin Gausman dazzled on Opening Day, holding Seattle to one run over 6 ⅔ innings, striking out six. Gausman struggled against San Diego last year, posting a 5.06 ERA in two appearances. However, of the nine hits in 27 at-bats that the current Padres have against him, just one has gone for an extra-base hit (a double by Jurickson Profar). As long as Gausman is not issuing any free passes, he should be able to quiet the Padres’ power surge. And with Fernando Tatis Jr. landing on the IL, that is one less big bat in San Diego’s lineup that Gausman will have to worry about.
Baltimore Orioles ML (+175)
Orioles starter John Means had a historical Opening Day outing, as High Heat Stats was quick to point out.
The 2019 All-Star has struggled in his career at Yankee Stadium, going 1-1 with a 5.54 career ERA. However, he has limited most of the Yankees’ big bats in his short career, as Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and DJ LeMahieu are a combined 5-for-24 against him.
However, the biggest reason for liking the Orioles is that Jameson Taillon is making his Yankees debut. Taillon has not pitched in the regular season since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019. He was sharp in the spring, posting a 1.08 ERA in 8 ⅓ total innings. But the regular season is a different animal, and I envision Taillon struggling much the same way that Domingo German struggled in his first start after a long layoff. With New York’s bullpen likely to be needed for at least 12 outs, I will take my chances with Baltimore, especially considering the Yankees bullpen is without Zack Britton and Justin Wilson’s services.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.