Navigate

Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, August 18th (2021)

by |

Of the 15 games on Wednesday’s MLB slate, 33% of them involve teams with moneyline odds of -200 or greater. So many teams are playing poor baseball, and several others have no realistic chance at making the playoffs. Thus, it is becoming increasingly challenging to gauge certain teams’ motivation levels while finding games to wager on that will not break the bank just to make a profit.

With our three best bets, we eschew the steep odds and get creative with our bets. We analyze a full-game total, a first five innings total, and a team total that all present great value.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 134-115-6 (+3.59 units)

Mets-Giants OVER 8.5 runs (-115)

The New York Mets have not been known as an offensive juggernaut all season. But despite losing five consecutive games, they have scored at least four runs in six of their last eight. They face Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani (11-5, 3.29), who has already surpassed his previous career-high in wins and is on pace for his best career ERA and WHIP. We cannot help but wonder if DeSclafani is due for regression at the end of the regular season and to pitch more like the career 4.12 ERA and 1.258 WHIP pitcher he has been to this point in his career.

DeSclafani allowed four or more earned runs just once in his first 19 starts but has allowed four earned runs in two of his last three. He has not lasted past the fifth inning in any of his previous three starts, and he has allowed a .308 OBA and 1.61 WHIP thus far in August.

New York’s Tylor Megill (1-2, 3.42) burst onto the scene and dazzled in his first seven big-league starts. His 2.04 ERA in that span was the second-best stretch for a Mets pitcher to begin his career, which trailed only Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan. However, he has come somewhat back to earth in his last three starts, pitching to a 6.75 ERA and allowing a .288 OBA in his previous 14.2 innings. 

The over has cashed in each of DeSclafani’s last eight home starts, and we look for both teams to do their part in continuing that trend tonight.

Blue Jays-Nationals First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 runs (+100)

Neither the Toronto Blue Jays nor the Washington Nationals are known for having a particularly strong bullpen. And with an underrated starting pitching matchup on tap tonight, the most sensible play is to take two subpar bullpens out of the equation and wager on the first five innings.

Toronto’s Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52) is coming off a poor outing in which he allowed six earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Angels. Before that poor start, he had allowed just one earned run over his last 19 innings and showed impeccable control with a 17:1 K:BB ratio. He faces a Nationals offense that ranks 23rd or worse in batting average, OPS, and runs scored in the last 15 days, which is much more relevant than taking into account their statistics before the trade deadline.

Washington’s Josiah Gray (0-1, 4.13) has made his first five starts against all top-eight offenses in the National League. Gray has held up well, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all four starts since his Major League debut. He has 16 strikeouts in his last 11 innings and has allowed an OBA of .220 with a WHIP of 1.06 in his three August starts. 

The under is 6-2 in Toronto’s last eight interleague road games against teams with a losing record, and is 3-2-1 in their previous six meetings with the Nationals in Washington. While we are not as confident that this under will hold up over nine innings, we predict a low-scoring start to the game.

Boston Red Sox Team Total OVER 4.5 runs (-140)

This wager is all about one man: New York’s Andrew Heaney. Since being acquired by the Yankees, Heaney (7-8, 5.78) has pitched to a 9.00 ERA and allowed eight home runs in 15 combined innings. Just about the only thing Heaney has done well in pinstripes is rack up strikeouts, as he has 18 K’s in his three starts as a Yankee.

Heaney faces a Red Sox lineup that mashes left-handed pitching. Boston ranks fourth in OPS, third in batting average, and second in runs scored against lefties. The numbers are a bit deceiving, as they are 0-7 in their last seven road games against a left-handed starter, but the over is 7-3-1 in their previous 11 road games against teams with a winning record. After a doubleheader yesterday, New York’s bullpen will be taxed. Manager Aaron Boone will likely need outs from relievers that he does not usually count upon in high-leverage situations. 

Current Red Sox hitters are batting .309 and slugging .527 in 63 combined plate appearances against Heaney, and their offense should provide plenty of fireworks in this series finale.

MLB Prop Bets


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.