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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 7th (2021)

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As Major League Baseball’s July 30 trade deadline quickly approaches, many players are using these upcoming games as auditions for contending teams looking to bolster their rosters. One of the hottest names among pitchers rumored to be traded at the deadline is Texas’s Kyle Gibson. He has been lights out all season and is one of the biggest reasons we are confident in one of our top three picks today.

Did the upcoming deadline affect any of our other plays?

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 105-88-3 (+6.52 units)

Tigers-Rangers UNDER 8 runs (-109)

Over a month ago on Twitter, I likened Kyle Gibson’s season with the Texas Rangers to Steve Carlton’s 1972 season with the Phillies when Carlton won 27 games on a team that finished with 59 wins. While Gibson is not nearly on pace to win that many games, his team is on pace to win just 64 games, making his 6-0 record through 16 starts all the more impressive.

Gibson (6-0, 1.98) has done most of his damage at home, going 5-0 with a microscopic 1.09 ERA in eight starts. He has allowed just three earned runs at home in 49.2 innings, with an OBA of .184 and a WHIP of 0.91. His last home start was his best outing of the year, holding Kansas City scoreless over seven innings while allowing just two hits and striking out ten. 

Detroit’s Casey Mize (5-5, 3.55 ERA) has an ERA almost an entire run lower on the road than at home this year. In 22 more innings on the road this year, Mize has an OBA 0.43 lower and a WHIP .29 lower than in his home starts. He has averaged one strikeout per inning over his last three starts and has won two of his previous three road decisions.

The Tigers and Rangers both rank in the top 12in batting average in July, but both of these teams’ starting pitchers should be able to cool their hot bats. Ignore the fact that the over is 3-0-1 in Gibson’s last four starts, and look for him to put on a clinic as a showcase for contending teams at the trade deadline.

Cincinnati Reds -1.5 runs (-109)

Speaking of contending teams, the Cincinnati Reds have used a recent five-game winning streak to get back into the thick of things in the NL Central and NL Wild Card races. On June 1, it looked like Cincinnati was destined to be sellers at the trade deadline as they entered the month five games under .500 at 24-29. However, now the outlook around the organization has changed, and the Reds will look to continue their momentum today in search of a series win against Kansas City. 

The Reds have used tremendous pitching to spur their winning streak, as their 1.80 team ERA in July entering Tuesday was the league’s best. Today’s starter, Sonny Gray (1-4, 3.27), accounted for one of those starts, as he held the Cubs to one run in five innings while tying his second-best strikeout total with eight. The under is 4-0-2 in Gray’s last six interleague starts, so we trust him to keep Kansas City’s scoring down. 

Cincinnati’s bats face Brady Singer (3-6, 4.74), who has allowed at least two runs in 11 of his last 12 starts. He has just one win in his previous eight starts, primarily because he has only pitched the five necessary innings to qualify for a win in just half of those appearances.

The Reds have won four of their last six games in Kansas City, and though four of their last five wins have come by one run,we still opt for the value of the runline in this one.

Seattle Mariners ML (+104)

To say that the New York Yankees have struggled of late is an understatement. They are 3-7 in their last ten games and have not fared much better in Domingo German’s starts lately.

The Yankees have won one of German’s (4-5, 4.50) last five starts. He has allowed four or more runs in three of his previous four starts and has not won a decision since May 20. German has not missed many bats lately, as he has three or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five starts.

German is opposed by Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi (6-3, 3.18), who is 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA in his last seven starts. The Yankees rank 15th or worse in BABIP and OPS against left-handed pitching and have won just one of their last five road games against a left-handed starter.

The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a winning record. They are also one of the most profitable teams as home underdogs with a 17-11 record in that spot and will put some more distance between them and the Yankees, who trail them in the wild card race.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.