Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Bets for Wednesday
A 2-0 start to the week on Monday (including a cash on a +138 moneyline underdog) brings our profitable MLB best bets run to a 7-1 record among our last eight picks. We are back to continue that hot streak with another trio of plays today. Read on for our top three MLB picks and bets for Wednesday, June 11th.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves (-142) at Milwaukee Brewers (+120) | O/U 8 (-114/-106) MLB Picks
The Atlanta Braves have endured a topsy-turvy start to their season, but I am banking on them being amid one of their positive stretches of play.
The Braves started the season with seven straight losses, and then won 24 of their next 40 from April 4 to May 18 (their 24-16 record over that span was tied for the fifth-best record in the majors). After Atlanta recently lost 14 of 17 following that positive streak, it won the series opener against Milwaukee in convincing fashion with Chris Sale on the mound, and I expect that to keep propelling it to new heights.
The Braves were extremely unlucky in their recent 3-14 stretch, going 0-8 in one-run games in that span. They entered this current series ranked 12th in starting pitching ERA, 15th in bullpen ERA, 18th in wRC+, 17th in BSR, tied for 21st in runs per game, and first in defensive runs saved.
I expect Atlanta’s Spencer Schwellenbach to improve his rotation-best 1.05 WHIP and to turn in his sixth quality start in his last seven outings. The Brewers are just 5-7 SU as home underdogs this season, and I look for their struggles in that split to continue in this afternoon affair.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-142)
New York Yankees (-122) at Kansas City Royals (+104) | O/U 9 (-105/-115) MLB Picks
Royals righty Kris Bubic takes the mound after winning the AL Pitcher of the Month Award for May. It was a month where he pitched 32 1/3 innings while recorded 33 strikeouts, a 0.56 ERA, and a 0.87 WHIP.
Bubic has backed up those numbers with strong metrics in almost every statistical category, as he ranks in the 77th percentile in xBA, 86th in xERA, and 77th or better in strikeout rate, hard-hit percentage allowed, and whiff percentage.
Bubic leads the league in ERA+ (285), and his league-leading 0.4 HR/9 rate plays well against a Yankees lineup that is heavily reliant on the long ball. Bubic allowed three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in an earlier start against New York this year, but he uncharacteristically struggled with his command that game, as four walks are too high for a pitcher who ranks in the 61st percentile in walk rate.
Bubic has a near 5:1 K:BB ratio in five home starts, and I expect better command will lead to a much more effective outing and subsequent win against Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+104)
San Francisco Giants (-230) at Colorado Rockies (+190) | O/U 10.5 (+102/-124) MLB Picks
It was not long ago (2021) when Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young Award while pitching for the Blue Jays. That year, he had a 2.84 ERA over 193 1/3 innings, while striking out 248 batters, posting a 1.05 WHIP, and a .210 opponent’s average. His numbers this season are on par with or exceed those numbers from his Cy Young year, as he currently has a 2.44 ERA through 77 1/3 innings. He has also struck out 87 batters and pitched to a 1.07 WHIP and .191 opponent’s average.
Seemingly the only way one can make money betting against the woeful Rockies these days is to lay the -1.5 runs with the runline. Colorado is 2-11 with a -48 run differential in Kyle Freeland’s 13 starts, and the fact that Colorado is 0-15 in its last 15 games against NL opponents with a winning record has me confident that San Francisco will win by two or more runs, especially with a Cy Young arm on the mound. Yes, San Francisco has played eight straight one-run games. This is when that streak ends.
Pick: Giants -1.5 (-154)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01