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Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/19)

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Major League Baseball games have been ultra competitive the last two days, as 16 of the 20 games played over Wednesday and Thursday were decided by two or fewer runs. Are we in for a similar slate of competitive Major League Baseball games to start the weekend?

Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday, April 19.

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      Friday’s Best MLB Bets

      (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

      Chicago White Sox (+152) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-180) | O/U 8 (-105/-115) 

      The Chicago White Sox have by far the worst run differential in the majors to this point (-54) and have scored just 38 total runs in 18 games, while getting shut out a whopping six times this year. Thus, it is not concerning that Citizens Bank Park is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league, as the White Sox have not managed to break out the bats anywhere they have played. They now face Philadelphia Phillies righty Spencer Turnbull, who has pitched to a 1.80 ERA through three starts, and who ranks in the 83rd percentile in average exit velocity.
      The biggest reason for us liking the Under is White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet’s outstanding transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation this season. Crochet’s 31 strikeouts through his first four career starts are the most in White Sox franchise history, per MLB’s Sarah Langs, and his 51 whiffs were the third-most of any pitcher over the last 300 pitchers entering Thursday, per Jon Anderson.
      Crochet now faces a Phillies lineup that has struck out at the 11th-highest rate this season, and that ranks 27th in ISO against southpaws, which suggests left-handed pitchers tend to neutralize Philadelphia’s biggest power bats (lefties Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper). The Under has cashed in 70 of Chicago’s last 124 games (+16.15 units, 12% ROI), and we expect it to be the right side of the total again.

      Bet: Under 8 (-115)

      Texas Rangers (+158) @ Atlanta Braves (-188) | O/U 9.5 (-106/-114) 

      This is a fascinating series between the defending World Series champions Texas Rangers and the Atlanta Braves, who unanimously had either the best or the second-best preseason odds to win the title this year. Texas is getting healthier with Justin Verlander’s much anticipated debut yesterday, while it faces a somewhat compromised Braves lineup, who is missing Ozzie Albies (out with a fractured big toe). Albies’ absence should not be understated, as he was batting .317 and is second on the team with 14 RBIs. In addition, Ronald Acuna has not yet shown his MVP caliber just yet, as he is striking out one every four at-bats (25%).

      We expect Andrew Heaney to give the Rangers a great chance to take this series opener, especially since Texas has been kind to moneyline bettors, going 27-12 in its last 39 games entering Thursday (+14.10 units, 29% ROI).

      Pick: Rangers Moneyline (+158)

      Detroit Tigers (+122) @ Minnesota Twins (-144) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-118) 

      The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins split a four-game series last week, and while two of the four games had 10 or more runs scored, we do not expect another slugfest in this one.

      Minnesota is sorely missing the services of injured stars Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis, as it has averaged just 3.4 runs per game, and its 58 runs are the third-lowest in the league. However, Detroit has not done much better in the batting department, as its .326 slugging percentage and 14 home runs are both the second-worst in the league. Thus, the Tigers’ lack of power has us less concerned that the Twins surrendered three or more home runs in every game in getting swept by the Baltimore Orioles in their last series. Detroit has been competitive in many low-scoring games to this point because of outstanding starting pitching and elite defense, as it is one of five teams with six-plus outs above average.

      The Under is 5-3 in Detroit’s eight away games this season and is 4-1 in Minnesota’s five game following a day off. Lets back Jack Flaherty and Joe Ryan to match zeroes for this series opener.

      Pick: Under 7.5 (-118)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.