Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/25)
Wednesday’s profitable 2-1 day got the momentum going for what we hope to be an even more profitable start to the weekend. Our MLB best bets start with one of the most anticipated series of the weekend with a day game between the Phillies and Cubs, and involves another moneyline wager and a play on a total.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, April 25th.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Phillies (+114) at Chicago Cubs (-135) | O/U 8 (-118/-102)
The Phillies enter this series opener amid a four-game losing streak. I am not completely killing Philadelphia for its three straight losses at the Mets (two of which were by one run), as New York set a franchise record with its best 13-game home start (12-1) in team history.
However, this wager is a complete fade of Phillies righty Taijuan Walker, despite him pitching to a more than respectable 2.29 ERA so far this year. Walker’s xERA is much higher at 3.76, and he is coming off a year where his xERA was by far the worst of his career (7.09).
Walker faces a Cubs offense that leads MLB with a +43 run differential, has averaged 6.3 runs per game, and has stolen 40 bases with a combined .806 OPS. If that is not impressive enough, Chicago has done that against the toughest schedule in the MLB thus far.
Chicago has won six of its seven series this month, which includes a 4-1 record against the Dodgers and series wins over Texas and Arizona. I am riding the hot team with the Cubs in this series opener, especially since Colin Rea has held current Phillies to a combined .194/.225/.368 slash line in 67 combined at-bats.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-135)
Toronto Blue Jays (+110) at New York Yankees (-130) | O/U 9.5 (-112/-108)
It is supposed to be a very warm April night in the Bronx with temperatures remaining in the 60s for most of the game, and I expect that to result in the ball flying out of the yard in this divisional matchup.
Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios is due for some regression from a fly-ball perspective, as his 20.2% fly ball rate is on pace to be the lowest of his career. He has a poor 4-8 record and career 5.22 ERA against the Bronx Bombers, which balloons to an even worse 6.05 career ERA at Yankee Stadium.
Meanwhile, Yankees righty Carlos Carrasco is on pace for the third year of his career with a hard-hit percentage allowed of 42.6% or worse, and he ranks in the 17th percentile or worse in xBA, whiff rate, and barrels.
This line is lowered because the Blue Jays are coming off a series where they tied a franchise-low nine hits in a three-game series against Houston. But the optimistic view is that they also had nine hits in a three-game series against Houston last year, and rebounded with 11 runs scored in a three-game series in the Bronx, which included an eight-run game in the middle of the series.
The Over is 3-0 in all three of New York’s games following a day off, and should be the right side of the total again in this series opener.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (-112)
Atlanta Braves (-120) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
The sky is not falling on Braves southpaw Chris Sale, despite him starting the season 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA. Sale’s 3.98 xERA suggests better days are ahead, and he entered the week ranked second only behind Dylan Cease in ERA-FIP.
Sale’s strikeout rate is down three percentage points from last season and his walk rate is up, but he still has a chase rate in the 94th percentile, which suggests batters do not see the ball well out of his hand.
The Braves are an abysmal 2-11 on the road this season, but the Diamondbacks are just 2-4 against left-handed starting pitchers and 12-7 against righties, so there is value with Atlanta’s moneyline odds, especially after having a day off.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-120)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.