Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/16)
Today in Major League Baseball might as well be called the start of “rivalry weekend”, as series between crosstown rivals like the Yankees and Mets, White Sox and Cubs, Nationals and Orioles (to some degree), Angels and Dodgers, and Athletics and Giants all do battle. Ballparks around the country should be packed with excitement, and we look to get the weekend started with a profitable day with our MLB best bets.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, May 16th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians (-126) at Cincinnati Reds (+108) | O/U 9.0 (-106/-114)
The Guardians are familiar with Reds righty Brady Singer’s arsenal from his time with the Royals, and that is not a good thing for Cincinnati.
Singer has allowed a .418/.485/.612 slash line in 122 combined at-bats to current Guardians hitters. Five different Guardians hitters (Steven Kwan, Bo Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Will Brennan) all have a career OPS of .833 or better against Singer (min. 10 ABs), while Santana (.273) is the only one of that bunch not batting at least .391 in their careers against the righty. In addition, Singer’s 6.7 career K/9 rate against Cleveland is his lowest against any team he has faced more than one time in his career.
Cleveland entered Thursday as one of four American League teams that are over .500 both at home and on the road. And the Reds not only have a worse record at home (10-12) than on the road (11-12), but they are three games under .500 (8-11) against teams with a winning record.
The Guardians have won four of their last five series, and I expect them to take the first step towards another series victory with a win in this opener.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-126)
Washington Nationals (-106) at Baltimore Orioles (-110) | O/U 9.0 (-110/-110)
The Orioles have arguably been the league’s biggest disappointment so far, owning the AL’s second-worst winning percentage and the worst run differential (-74).
Baltimore inspires no confidence in this series opener given its struggles against left-handed pitching. Only two teams in baseball have a worse record against southpaw starting pitchers than the Orioles’ 3-9 mark, and now they face rising star MacKenzie Gore, who leads all Nationals starters in WHIP, ERA, and WAR.
Gore took a hard-luck loss in a 2-1 defeat to Baltimore on April 24 when he allowed two earned runs over six innings. However, he also only allowed four hits while recording eighth strikeouts (his fourth game this season with eight-plus K’s), and he generated 26 called strikes and whiffs while producing a CSW% of 33% or better on three of his primary pitches.
The Nationals are just 5-11 as road underdogs this season, but the value on them is too good to pass up here.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (-106)
Atlanta Braves (+102) at Boston Red Sox (-120) | O/U 8.0 (-108/-112)
While Juan Soto’s return to the Bronx as a Mets player is deservedly receiving most of the media attention, I am drawn to Chris Sale’s return to Fenway Park to take on many of his old Red Sox teammates.
If Boston can do what it did to another elite southpaw on Wednesday in Tarik Skubal, there is no doubt it can have success in this matchup.
Skubal had held opponents to two or fewer runs in six straight starts, and the Tigers had outscored opponents 35-7 in his last five starts while compiling a 4-1 record. However, Boston lit the reigning Cy Young Award winner up for five earned runs on seven hits, and now rank seventh in wRC+ and first in BABIP against left-handed pitchers. With Atlanta also facing one of the best lefties in the sport in Boston’s Garrett Crochet, Boston backers should be even more confident that Atlanta ranks 26th and 27th respectively in wRC+ and BABIP against left-handed pitching by comparison.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-120)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01