Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/2)
In what has become one of my most looked forward to pieces of the MLB season each year, MLB’s Sarah Langs gave an overview of the history of what it means to be leading the division on May 1st. Since 1996, slightly more than half of the teams in first place on May 1st went on to win their divisions. Surely, anything can happen with no first-place team holding more than a 3.5-game lead at the moment.
We are off to a great start with our MLB best bets this week (4-1), and are looking to continue the momentum heading into the weekend.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, May 2nd.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals (+110) at Baltimore Orioles (-130) | O/U 9.5 (+100/-122)
The Baltimore Orioles figured to have pitching concerns entering this season, but that weakness was not supposed to have them buried in last place in the American League East.
Through the first 30 games of the season, Baltimore’s starting pitching ranked 29th out of 30 teams with a 5.47 ERA. There was still optimism in Baltimore despite last year’s early playoff exit, but the fact is that the Orioles have been a below-average team for a lengthy period.
Entering Thursday, the Orioles were 48-60 (including the playoffs) since July 4th last year. And it is not like the offense has been bailing them out, as they have gone from the fourth-highest scoring team in the Majors last season to 20th in runs per game.
Royals righty Michael Wacha’s 1-3 record does not tell the whole story, as the team is 3-1 in his last four starts despite averaging fewer than three runs per game in that span. I expect their bats to wake up in support of him today, leading to a victory in this series opener.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+110)
Tampa Bay Rays (+176) at New York Yankees (-210) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
The Yankees are a perfect 5-0 in Max Fried’s first five starts with the team. That stretch has been historic, as he is the fifth pitcher in franchise history to record four wins and a sub-1.50 ERA in his first five appearances since 1913. He is also the first Yankee with five wins, 30 strikeouts and a sub-1.50 ERA in his first five games with the team.
While New York’s Moneyline odds are too steep to back, the better value lies with the under.
Tampa Bay’s tentative home at George M. Steinbrenner Field has played as a solid hitter’s park thus far. The Rays entered Thursday slashing .253/.329/.392 in home games and .238/.286/.359 on the road. And I expect a solid outing from Ryan Pepiot, who has made quality starts in half of his six trips to the rubber this season.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
Detroit Tigers (-168) at Los Angeles Angels (+142) | O/U 7.5 (-108/-112)
Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal takes the mound for Detroit in the second game of this four-game series. There is no hotter pitcher on the planet.
Since 2023, Skubal ranks first among all pitchers with a minimum of 40 starts in ERA (2.49), FIP (2.35) and opponent OPS (.556), while ranking second in K/BB rate (6.9) and HR/9 (0.5).
In his last start against the Orioles, Skubal threw 61 of his 91 pitches for strikes, while getting called strikes or whiffs on 37 of them. He threw first pitch strikes to 16 out of 23 batters, and none of his four hits allowed went for extra bases.
Last year’s triple crown winner has a 30:1 K:BB ratio and two earned runs allowed in 24 innings spanning his last four starts. I expect him to lead the American League Central leaders to a big win over a scuffling Angels team.
Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+100)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01