Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/23)
Several fascinating new series begin today and continue throughout the weekend in Major League Baseball.
The Cincinnati Reds will look to make an early charge at the National League Central-leading Chicago Cubs, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets play a rematch of last year’s exciting National League Championship Series.
Elsewhere, it will be fascinating to watch what Aaron Judge and the red-hot New York Yankees offense can do in Coors Field all weekend when facing the Colorado Rockies. Do any of these games make today’s MLB best bets column?
Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, May 23rd.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers (+106) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-124) | O/U 7.0 (-110/-110)
It would be easy to back the under in this game simply because both teams are sending their aces (Freddy Peralta and Paul Skenes) to the mound. However, this decision has been made even easier because of how historically poor the Pittsburgh Pirates’ offense has been lately.
Entering yesterday’s series opener against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Pirates had scored four or fewer runs in 26 consecutive games, which was tied for the longest streak in MLB since 1920. To make matters worse, they now face Peralta, whose FIP, ERA, WHIP, HR/9, H/9 and walk rate have all improved from last season. Peralta did allow seven earned runs in 10 innings of work in two starts against Pittsburgh last year, but the light-hitting Pirates do not project to provide much of a scare tonight.
On the other side, Skenes is still the National League Cy Young favorite after starting the year with quality starts in seven out of 10 appearances (including three straight), and ranking in the 93rd percentile in xERA and the 88th percentile in barrels.
The under has cashed in eight of the Pirates’ last nine home games, and should be the right side of the total again tonight.
Pick: Under 7.0 Runs (-110)
San Diego Padres (+120) at Atlanta Braves (-142) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
The Atlanta Braves look for payback after opening the season with three consecutive losses against the San Diego Padres. While that sweep spiraled into seven consecutive losses to start the season, Atlanta has been one of the best teams in the league since, and two of those losses in the first series were by one run.
Padres righty Nick Pivetta has had tremendous career success against the Braves, limiting current hitters to a combined .224/.270/.466 slash line over 147 at-bats. But I expect Chris Sale to outduel Pivetta, especially since the southpaw has been so dominant over his last six starts.
Sale now faces a Padres team that entered yesterday amid a five-game losing streak while scoring one or fewer runs in all five games. San Diego was also 0-for-32 with runners in scoring position over that stretch. While the Padres are likely to see positive regression offensively sooner rather than later, I do not expect it to come at Sale’s expense.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-142)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) at St. Louis Cardinals (+110) | O/U 8.5 (-114/-106)
The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off their first series loss since April 21-23 versus Atlanta. But I am giving them a pass, considering the series loss was to a 33-17 Detroit Tigers team that holds the best record in MLB through 50 games for the first time since 2006, a season in which they reached the World Series.
Before losing the final two games of the series to Detroit, St. Louis had been 16-6 at home. In that span, it averaged 5.1 runs per game, batted .295 as a team, hit 22 home runs and posted a .817 OPS. Their pitching was also outstanding at home to that point, with the starters collectively pitching to a 3.32 ERA and the bullpen pitching to a 2.48 ERA.
All of those numbers trump St. Louis’ road statistics, where they are 11-15 on the road, while averaging 4.7 runs per game, batting .242 and owning a .689 OPS. The starters and bullpen have pitched to ERAs of 3.77 and 5.14, respectively.
With this game being at home, I expect St. Louis to improve to 7-2 in home series openers this year.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01