Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/30)
We have started 5-1 with our MLB best bets for this week, which have included four cashes on underdogs or wagers with plus-money odds. We are back to keep that momentum going heading into the weekend, as several exciting new series begin around Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, May 30.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Athletics (+138) at Toronto Blue Jays (-164) | O/U 8.5 (+102/-124)
The Blue Jays got a look at one Athletics southpaw in Jacob Lopez in yesterday’s series opener, which is good preparation for facing a second straight lefty today in Jeffrey Springs. In yesterday’s 12-0 win, Toronto improved to 17-9 against teams under .500 and 5-5 against left-handed starting pitchers.
Springs has seen his K/9 rate rapidly decline over the last three seasons, from 13.5 in 2023 to 10.1 last year, and now has a K/9 rate of just 7.2 this season. Pitching to more contact has also make his FIP skyrocket from 1.82 to 4.63 in that span, and that is a dangerous recipe when facing a Blue Jays offense that entered yesterday’s series opener ranked in the top 10 in BABIP against southpaws.
Toronto has covered the run line in 62.1% (18-of-29) of its home games this season, and I am backing them to win big again tonight.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 Runs (+126)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+166) at San Diego Padres (-198) | O/U 7.5 (+100/-122)
The Pirates have scored just 183 runs this season (second-worst in baseball), but have been an offensive juggernaut during a two-game winning streak in which they scored 18 runs and pounded out 23 hits. That makes their dubious streak of 26 consecutive games scoring four or fewer runs, which tied the MLB record, seem like a distant memory.
Pittsburgh now faces Nick Pivetta, whose ERA is up to 2.72 after pitching to a 1.78 ERA through his first six starts. Pivetta has allowed a home run in five consecutive starts. Though he has not been burned by those long balls with the last two being the only earned runs he has allowed, eventually those home runs are bound to come with runners on base.
Conversely, I expect San Diego to have success against Mitch Keller, as three Padres starters (Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Arraez) are all slugging .500 or better with an OPS of at least .912 in their careers against the Pirates righty.
The Over is just 8-13-1 when San Diego is a home favorite, but is a profitable 5-4 when the Padres are playing after an off day, and is 4-1-1 in that split for the Pirates.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (+100)
New York Yankees (-132) at Los Angeles Dodgers (+112) | O/U 9 (-108/-112)
Max Fried’s Yankees tenure has started in historic fashion, as he became just the second pitcher since 1969 to be 7-0 or better while pitching to an ERA lower than 1.50 before Memorial Day, per OptaSTATS. Fried is also the first Yankees pitcher to pitch to a sub-1.30 ERA across his first 10 starts of a season, and only three pitchers have had a lower ERA than Fried’s current 1.29 ERA through their first 11 starts.
While the Yankees are 10-1 in Fried’s 11 starts (the only loss was a 2-1 loss in 11 innings to the Mariners), there is too much value to be had by backing the mighty Dodgers, despite them being at a starting pitching disadvantage with Tony Gonsolin toeing the rubber. Most of Shohei Ohtani’s numbers (besides stolen bases) are on pace to be better than last year’s MVP campaign, Freddie Freeman is off to one of the best starts of his career, and L.A. once again leads the NL in OPS.
The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last six interleague games following a loss, and I am backing that trend while expecting regression from Fried.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (+112)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01