Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/9)
Undeterred from an 0-2 Thursday, we are back to revive the momentum that carried us for the last two weeks with another trio of wagers.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, May 9.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves (-148) at Pittsburgh Pirates (+126) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
This Braves/Pirates series opener features a matchup of two starting pitchers with identical 5.06 ERAs. However, I have much more confidence in Bryce Elder than Bailey Falter. We are likely still getting decent odds on Atlanta’s runline because the Braves are at a rest disadvantage having finished their series with the Reds yesterday while the Pirates enjoyed a day off.
Elder may not be coming off a quality start as his five innings did not qualify, but it was arguably his most impressive performance of the season on Sunday Night Baseball against the Dodgers. Elder struck out a season-high six batters and allowed fewer than five hits for the first time in five starts, while leading the team to a fourth straight win when he has toed the rubber.
I have no confidence in a Pirates’ offense that has averaged two runs per game over a 1-10 stretch. Atlanta is still a profitable 6-5 against the runline since the start of last season when at a rest disadvantage, so I am not buying into that being the reason the Braves come out flat in this series opener.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+104)
Texas Rangers (+225) at Detroit Tigers (-275) | O/U 7.5 (-114/-106)
Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal takes the mound for Detroit against a Texas team that is just 3-6 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The Rangers have collectively slashed .229/.289/.333 against southpaws this season, while ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in wRC+ in that metric.
Now Texas leaves the warmth of hitter-friendly Globe Life Field to go to a chillier and more cavernous Comerica Park, to face a Tigers team that ranks fifth in wRC+ in home games. However, I am buying into Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin’s hot start (for now), as he is on pace for his lowest xERA of the last six seasons. Corbin also ranks in the 70th percentile in barrels and 89th percentile in hard-hit rate, which should help neutralize Detroit’s offense.
This is also a matchup of two bullpens that rank top 12 in FIP while Detroit’s is also second in ERA. The Under is also 16-6 in Texas’ games against teams outside of the AL West, and I expect it to be the right side of the total in this series opener.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-106)
San Diego Padres (-184) at Colorado Rockies (+154) | O/U 11.5 (+102/-124)
The Padres lost two of three games at Yankee Stadium while scoring just 10 total runs in the three-game set. However, San Diego also faced New York’s two best pitchers, and two of the hottest pitchers in the league, in Carlos Rodon and Max Fried. Thus, a trip to Coors Field after a day off while the Rockies’ bullpen is gassed after playing a doubleheader yesterday is just what the Padres need to get their bats going.
Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela actually has decent numbers of late against the Padres given the Coors Field environment for much of those starts. In the last 66 at-bats, the Padres have collectively slashed .288/.301/.423 against him. They also to figure to put the ball in play a lot tonight, as they have struck out against him just six times in that span.
Senzatela was involved in a weird statistic that made him the fourth pitcher in MLB history to allow 19-plus hits and no earned runs in a two-game span. That luck is not sustainable, and the Padres’ offense should capitalize tonight.
Pick: Padres Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (-102)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01