Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/12)
Of the 11 games on Monday’s Major League Baseball slate, just two are divisional games. That means there are plenty of opportunities to wager on some untapped markets and get a leg up on the oddsmakers.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, May 12th.
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Monday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers (-126) at Cleveland Guardians (+108) | O/U 8.0 (-114/-106)
The Milwaukee Brewers have lost four of their last six series. They found themselves two games under .500 in the middle of their last series against the Tampa Bay Rays for the second time since starting the season with four straight losses.
Cleveland is likely an underdog in this matchup simply because they played in the Sunday Night Baseball matchup while finishing their series with the Phillies. But that rest disadvantage is mitigated by the fact that the Guardians did not have to travel while the Brewers are making a long trip from Florida.
Milwaukee is 3-2 in ace Freddy Peralta’s last five starts, but scored just two runs apiece in those two losses. Its offense could be similarly shut down by Ben Lively, who leads all Guardians starting pitchers in WAR and ERA, despite none of his eight starts being quality starts.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+108)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+118) at New York Mets (-138) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-118)
No team has scored fewer runs to this point than the Pittsburgh Pirates, who now face a New York Mets starting rotation that leads the league in ERA and FIP.
Paul Skenes’ starts have seen three or fewer runs scored over nine innings in three of his last four outings. I am backing him to pitch motivated after losing yet another game to the rival Cardinals in his last start. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his five starts against teams outside the National League Central.
I also expect David Peterson to match zeros early with Skenes, as he is unbeaten in four home starts and has not allowed a home run in 20.1 innings at Citi Field. A Pirates offense that ranks second-to-last in the National League in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers should provide little resistance early.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 3.5 Runs (+106)
Colorado Rockies (+220) at Texas Rangers (-270) | O/U 8.5 (-114/-106)
The way the Colorado Rockies have pitched of late, the Texas Rangers could go over this projected total by themselves. Colorado has allowed nine or more runs in five of its last seven games. In the two games they didn’t, the Rockies allowed eight runs in an 8-6 loss and scored nine runs in a 9-3 win.
Will third-base coach and interim manager Warren Schaeffer help improve the pitching staff after Bud Black was fired? Time will tell, but I expect Texas to do a bulk of the scoring while teeing off on the organization’s No. 1 prospect, Chase Dollander.
Dollander has struggled thus far in his rookie season, ranking in the fifth percentile or worse in xERA and barrels. He averages over 97 miles per hour (MPH) on his fastball, but the Rangers are a great fastball-hitting team.
The over has cashed in each of Colorado’s last eight games, and that has me backing it as the right side of the total despite Texas being the third-most profitable team to the under (27-13-1).
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-114)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01