Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/11)
There are 11 games on Monday’s Major League Baseball slate, and we enter the week with two teams (the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers) amid winning streaks of at least seven games, while the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies are going the other way with seven-game losing streaks.
Read on for our top MLB picks and bets for Monday, August 11th.
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Monday's Best MLB Bets & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Twins (+150) at New York Yankees (-184) | O/U 9.0 (-102/-119)
Minnesota last won a season series against the New York Yankees in 2023. Before that, you have to go back to 2001 to find a season the Twins ended with more head-to-head wins than the Yankees. Most recently, New York swept last season's series 6-0. But its struggles (20-31 over the last 51 games) make it hard to trust their steep Moneyline odds, which is why I am backing a player prop as the best wager from this game.
Left-handed and right-handed hitters have had the same number of at-bats against Twins righty Zebby Matthews this year, and lefties have a lower batting average, on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging rate.
Yankees lefty Jazz Chisholm enters this series opener with a single as his only hit in his last 17 at-bats. His .167 batting average in August is akin to his .151 average in April, when he never had a multi-hit game and mixed in a five-game hitless drought.
Matthews' 2.38 FIP is the seventh-lowest of all qualified starting pitchers in the second half. The fact that he did not allow a single barrel on three of his primary pitches in his last start suggests he has a great chance to hold Chisholm hitless today.
Pick: Jazz Chisholm Under 0.5 Total Bases (+130)
Boston Red Sox (-175) at Houston Astros (+143) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-116)
Boston finished a three-game sweep of Houston at Fenway Park just nine days ago, in which it outscored the Astros 15-5. Now that Boston sends one of the best pitchers in the Majors to the mound, we are expecting them to win a fourth straight in this head-to-head series.
Garrett Crochet is closing the gap on Detroit Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal for the American League Cy Young Award, as a Triple Crown is in his sights (the only category he does not lead in is strikeouts). But the most fascinating part of Crochet's league-leading 13 wins is that he has seven other no-decisions in which he allowed one or fewer runs five times, and surrendered seven earned runs in 41.2 innings in those starts.
Since June, Boston is 10-1 in Crochet's last 11 starts. But bettors should still be warned about this wager and should keep an eye on any line movement. The Astros have been a +145 underdog or worse six times this year, once against Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates, once against the Texas Rangers, three times in a road series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and once yesterday against the New York Yankees. Houston is a perfect 6-0 straight up (SU) in those spots, but I cannot oppose Crochet amid his Cy Young push.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-175)
San Diego Padres (+118) at San Francisco Giants (-143) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Logan Webb continues to be San Francisco's most reliable workhorse and innings-eater. But he is also coming off back-to-back starts of 109+ pitches. This wager comes with the expectation that he will flounder after turning in his two highest pitch counts of the season.
Webb has been burned by some of San Diego's biggest bats. Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill each have an OPS of 1.115 or better in 27 combined at-bats against the righty. And the Padres have gotten production from some less heralded players of late, like Ramon Laureano, who entered yesterday with 10 hits and eight RBI in eight games since the trade to San Diego.
Webb's 165 strikeouts are the fifth-most in the league, but I expect a lower strikeout ceiling when facing a strikeout-averse San Diego lineup. We are getting an inflated number on Webb, who has recorded double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back starts. But each of those came against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that ranks in the bottom seven in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, while San Diego owns the lowest strikeout rate of any National League team in that split.
Webb has six and seven strikeouts in two starts against the Padres this year, but San Diego has lowered its strikeout rate even further since the start of July. Let’s back the under on this player prop to round out our trio of picks to start the week.
Pick: Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01