Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/18)
Entering the weekend, the American League is a jumbled mess, with no team more than three games over .500, and division contenders like the Blue Jays, Royals and Mariners all residing in last place. Meanwhile, the Mets are amid a nine-game losing streak, something they haven’t done since their inaugural season in 1962. Among my three MLB picks & predictions, two are between division rivals that figure to be battling for first place all year long. I also added a first five innings total wager on a game involving the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner.
Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, April 18th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 4-5-0 (-0.85 units)
Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates righty Paul Skenes is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA across 17.1 innings in his last three starts. He has also held opponents to a .105 average and .419 OPS.
Home dominance is nothing new for Skenes, as he has now pitched to a 1.02 ERA in his last 13 home starts, while opponents have hit .169 over that span.
Meanwhile, Rays righty Drew Rasmussen is coming off a dominant outing where he retired 18 of the 19 Yankees he faced, and lowered his ERA to 1.03 in eight career appearances against the Bronx Bombers.
It’s worth noting that in 10 losses last year, Skenes received 11 total runs of support. I’m selling high after the Pirates had a 10-run inning in Skenes’ last start (the most they've scored in an inning since at least 1974), while the 15 total runs scored were the most the Pirates have scored in one of his MLB starts.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-115)
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta's 12-7 start through its first 19 games was a product of it being one of three MLB teams to score 106 runs in that span, while also owning the best starting pitching ERA in the entire league. That combination should lead to another win while looking for a series victory, as it is the only MLB team yet to lose a series.
Chris Sale's velocity in his last start was a welcome sight. At one point, Sale threw consecutive pitches of 98+ miles per hour (MPH). His fastest pitch was 99.4 MPH, and he had thrown just two pitches overall at 99 MPH or harder since the start of 2019.
Sale recorded six strikeouts in his last start, overcoming the fact that he got whiffs on just four out of 18 swings against his slider. I expect positive regression at least from that pitch alone, though, as his slider generated a 35.8% whiff rate through his first three starts, and a 39.8% whiff rate in 2025.
Meanwhile, Cristopher Sanchez entered the season as a bona fide National League Cy Young candidate, but has been inconsistent with 11 hits allowed to the light-hitting Giants, and control issues with four walks allowed against the Nationals.
Even in a down year where they finished 10 games under .500, Atlanta still went 23-20 against left-handed starting pitchers.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (+109)
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
The Mariners entered the series with the league's 28th-ranked team batting average and were in the bottom half of the league in on-base percentage (OBP).
Seattle scored 69 runs through its first 17 games, and 29 of those runs came during its four-game sweep of Houston. It took advantage of an Astros pitching staff that was in shambles to produce a .422 OBP over the three games, after finishing the first 13 games with a .280 OBP.
Nathan Eovaldi allowed 11 runs over his first 8.2 innings this season, but is coming off a dominant outing where he allowed three hits (all singles) in the bandbox of the Athletics' stadium, while not allowing a single runner to reach third base.
George Kirby is a formidable opponent who has pitched into the eighth inning in back-to-back starts. In addition, he has allowed a .224/.255/.279 slash line in 98 at-bats to current Rangers hitters, with four of the 22 hits going for extra bases.
But Eovaldi has been equally as tough on Mariners hitters as Kirby has been on the Rangers. In 107 combined at-bats, he has allowed a .196/.262/.336 slash line, which makes the Rangers worthy of a Moneyline play as road underdogs.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (+123)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.