Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/6)
Between college football, UFC Fight Night and a loaded slate of Major League Baseball, we should be in for another fantastic, wall-to-wall sports Saturday. I'm keeping it on the diamond for my best MLB picks & predictions today. Below you'll find my three favorite MLB bets.
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Saturday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of Hard Rock Bet)
Minnesota Twins (-125) vs. Kansas City Royals (+105) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-120)
The Royals (72-69) pulled within one game of the final Wild Card spot courtesy of a 2-1 series-opening victory over the Twins (62-79) last night. Kansas City will try to keep things rolling tonight when it turns to Stephen Kolek. Minnesota counters with Joe Ryan in this divisional clash, which gets underway at 7:15 p.m. ET from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO.
I was looking to back Joe Ryan in this game, but I don't trust Minnesota's bullpen. Rather than bet the Twins Moneyline or the full game under, I think it's best to play the first five innings under in this matchup between Ryan and Kolek.
Ryan has been lights out this season, going 13-7 with a 3.08 ERA (16th) and a 0.97 WHIP (seventh). His 174 strikeouts are 12th in the Majors. Kansas City's current roster is slashing just .180/.204/.323 against him over 133 at-bats.
As for Kolek, he's coming off his first start as a member of the Royals. It was a gem against the Tigers, where he limited them to one earned run on four hits over six innings. The right-hander has two consecutive quality starts, and he's tasked with taking on a Twins side ranked 23rd in runs per game (4.21) this season. Let's play the first five innings under.
Bet: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-115)
San Francisco Giants (-130) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+110) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
The Giants (72-69) are in the midst of an 11-1 run, which has catapulted them up the National League standings heading into the home stretch of the season. They're four games out of the National League Wild Card race. Today's pitching matchup between the Giants and the Cardinals (70-72) pits Justin Verlander against Andre Pallante. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO.
Verlander has been an integral piece in San Francisco's current 11-1 stretch of baseball. He has made two starts, posting a 1.64 ERA and racking up 15 strikeouts over 11 innings during that stretch. Between Verlander and a San Francisco bullpen that's second in both ERA (3.31) and WHIP (1.19), I'm expecting them to carve up St. Louis' offense tonight. I'm taking the Red Birds to stay under 3.5 runs with an even-money payout.
The Cardinals have stayed under this threshold in three of their last four games. Over the last seven days, St. Louis is a mediocre 21st in wOBA (.287) and 15th in ISO (.162). They also own the third-highest strikeout rate (28.3%) over the last week. This is a high-stakes contest for the Giants, and I expect Verlander and their top-tier bullpen to show up in a big way.
Bet: Cardinals Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (+100)
Boston Red Sox (-120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) | O/U 8.5 (-130/+105)
The Diamondbacks (71-71) have slithered their way back to .500 thanks to a 10-5 victory over the Red Sox (78-64) on Friday night. The Interleague foes are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Lucas Giolito and Brandon Pfaadt. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
Boston has been playing solid baseball recently, going 10-5 in its last 15 games. I'll back them here as slim road favorites against an Arizona squad that has been gutted since the trade deadline. The Snakes traded away key offensive players in Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez and Randal Grichuk, and they're also without Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ACL) for the rest of the season.
Keeping it with the anti-Arizona angle, they'll turn to the struggling Brandon Pfaadt tonight. The right-hander brings in a 5.33 ERA (50th) and a 1.39 WHIP (51st). He posted a 6.16 ERA across six August outings (30.2 innings). Factor in that the Diamondbacks have a relief staff that's 26th in ERA (4.69) and 24th in WHIP (1.40), and it appears that the Red Sox should break out offensively in this game. I'll take Boston to secure the road win tonight.
Bet: Red Sox Moneyline (-120)