Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/23)
Monday’s MLB best bets column served as a reminder that momentum in Major League Baseball only goes so far as the next day’s starting pitcher, as we cashed Miami’s +110 moneyline odds the day after its opponent, Cincinnati, won its previous game 24-2. Atlanta blew a 7-3 ninth inning lead to cost us our runline wager and a chance at a 2-0 day, but we were profitable by backing the Marlins as underdogs nonetheless.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Wednesday, April 23rd.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Phillies (-120) at New York Mets (+102) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-118)
The New York Mets made history with their 5-4 series-opening win over the Philadelphia Phillies. Per OptaSTATS, New York became the first team in the modern era (since 1901) to have its starting pitchers allow fewer than 15 runs (13 total) and no home runs in its first 11 home games of a season.
That gives us confidence that David Peterson will continue the team’s runs of great outings, especially since he pitched to a solid 3.97 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in two starts against the Phillies last year.
But this bet is made with the most confidence because Zack Wheeler is on the mound for Philadelphia. Wheeler entered the weekend with the fifth-best xERA of all starting pitchers, and is coming off a dominant 13-strikeout performance in his last outing.
The Under cashed in four of Philadelphia’s first six games as road favorites entering Tuesday, and I am backing it as the right side of the total once again.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-118)
Baltimore Orioles (-124) at Washington Nationals (+106) | O/U 9.5 (+100/-122)
The Washington Nationals are 1-3 in Trevor Williams’ four starts. And with the righty pitching to a 5.95 ERA to this point, he has done nothing to suggest he will be successful in limiting the Orioles lineup.
Williams has an xERA more than two runs lower than his actual ERA, but he does not miss many bats, with a strikeout percentage hovering at 18%. Baltimore’s hitters have shown they can be overpowered by fastballs to this point in the season, but that will not be an issue when facing Williams, whose average fastball velocity ranks in the lowest percentile among all pitchers.
Baltimore struggled to a 9-12 record entering Tuesday despite ranking 8th in wRC+ and fifth in ISO. Its ability to hit for power allows it to score runs in bunches, and as long as its pitching staff continues to rank among the worst in team ERA, its offense will have to score plenty to keep pace.
Pick: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Texas Rangers (-112) at Athletics (-108) | O/U 9.5 (-102/-120)
This wager is a complete fade of Texas Rangers rookie Kumar Rocker, who is the only starting pitcher on the first-place team with a negative WAR rating.
Rocker has made just one quality start in four appearances this year, and has struggled with a 6.9 K/9 rate and 1.47 WHIP to this point. Rocker has a long way to go to live up to being the organization’s No. 2 ranked prospect, especially since he ranks in the 13th percentile or worse in xBA and hard-hit rate allowed.
A’s southpaw JP Sears has pitched very well against Texas in his career, holding current Rangers hitters to a combined .223/.276/.397 slash line. And the Rangers have not found their groove offensively yet, being held to three or fewer runs in 12 games this season.
The Athletics entered Tuesday with a +25% ROI on their moneyline odds over the previous eight games, and their 10-5 runline record over the previous 15 has us confident they can pull an upset in this divisional matchup.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline (-108)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.