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Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/24)

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The New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox made history of the wrong kind on Monday. Per Stathead’s Katie Sharp, Monday was the fourth time in franchise history that the New York Yankees were shut out at least three times at home through the first 23 games of the season, and it came at the expense of the lowly Oakland Athletics no less. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox became the first team in MLB history to be shut out at eight times through the first 22 games of a season, and the first to have that done in any 22-game span since the San Diego Padres in the 1970s. 

Will those offenses wake up in the third game of their four-game series today?

Read on for our MLB best bets for Wednesday.

    Wednesday’s Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    New York Mets (+110) vs. San Francisco Giants (-130) | O/U 7.5 (-120/-102) 

    Southpaw Blake Snell has not acclimated well at all to his new San Francisco Giants uniform just yet, as he has pitched to an 11.57 ERA through his first three starts. This is still a pitcher who posted a 1.23 ERA through the final 21 starts of last season, so we expect positive regression to come soon, especially with respect to his lofty BABIP (.410) and strand rate (39.6%) metrics. 

    The New York Mets are 4-1 against left-handed starting pitchers this season, but struggled mightily against southpaws last year, going 18-35 against lefties (the worst winning percentage in the National League) and 57-52 against righties. Sean Manaea is in a revenge spot against his former team, but his 45.3% hard-hit percentage allowed and 11.6% walk rate are on pace to be the worst of his career, and are big reasons why his xERA (5.74) is so much higher than his actual ERA (4.12).

    San Francisco entered Tuesday 28-19 in its last 47 home games (+5.40 units/8% ROI), and has covered the run line through the first five innings in nine of its last 16 home games. Not only do we expect the Giants to get out to a fast start today, but we are backing their full game run line, as it provides better value than the moneyline odds with a two-time Cy Young Award winner on the mound.

    Pick: Giants -1.5 (+162)

    Milwaukee Brewers (+102) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) | O/U 9 (-110/-110) 

    The Pittsburgh Pirates snapped a six-game losing streak with a 4-2 win in the series opener against the Milwaukee Brewers. However, it was far from the offensive breakout they were hoping for, as they went just 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position, and just two of their nine hits went for extra bases.

    Pittsburgh scored just nine total runs in its six-game losing streak, and scored more than two runs just once in that stretch. Milwaukee won the season series 8-5 against Pittsburgh last year, and held the Pirates to just four runs per game. They should be in for a tougher time offensively in this game when facing Brewers ace Freddy Peralta, who has induced the eighth-most whiffs (48) among starting pitchers over their last 300 pitches. Peralta also ranks 13th in the majors in ERA (1.90), fourth in WHIP, seventh in OBA, and sixth in K/BB ratio.

    Pittsburgh entered Tuesday cashing the team total Under in 76 of its last 134 games (+11.44 units/7% ROI), and we expect Peralta to limit the Pirates once again.

    Pick: Pirates team total Under 4.5 (-130)

    Philadelphia Phillies (-102) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-116) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-104) 

    Philadelphia Phillies righty Spencer Turnbull took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his last start, but that came against the worst offensive team in baseball (the White Sox), and Turnbull has benefitted from a schedule where three of his first four opponents ranked in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate (and all were in the bottom half of the league).

    Turnbull’s success to this point (a 1.23 ERA) is largely tied to his increased usage of his sweeper, throwing it 35.1% of the time compared to a 21.6% career average. While opposing lineups are hitting .133 against it, his 13.2% swinging strike rate and 22% chase rate suggests teams are going to start having more success against that pitch as the season goes on. He faces a Cincinnati Reds lineup that will look to cut down on their NL-worst 27.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. But the Reds have also hit for good power against righties with the sixth-best ISO (.174). Conversely, Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has an eye-popping 0.75 ERA through his first two starts, but those were against two of the AL’s worst projected teams (White Sox and Angels), and Philadelphia ranks third in BABIP, sixth in wOBA, and ninth in wRC+ against southpaws.

    Philadelphia cashed its team total Over in 17 of its last 24 road games entering Tuesday, and the full game Over in 32 of its last 54 road games. The Under may be 28-10 in Cincinnati’s last 38 home games, but we believe oddsmakers are overreacting to two pitchers with low ERAs, and this game should exceed the projected total.

    Pick: Over 8.5 (-118)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.