Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/28)
Our week could not have started off any better, as we turned in one of our most profitable days of the season on Monday. We ended with a 3-0 sweep, including two cashes on moneyline underdog plays, and an alternate team total at -108 odds. Will we follow a similar approach to keep the momentum going? Read on for our top MLB picks for Wednesday, May 28th.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+106) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-124) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
The Rockies and White Sox seem destined to loss 100 games, and the Pirates may not be far behind them, considering they struggle to win games that ace Paul Skenes is not pitching. However, just because Skenes is on the mound does not necessarily mean that translates to wins either.
Pittsburgh is just 1-4 in Skenes’ last five starts, with the lone win being a come-from-behind win in extra innings in his last outing against the Brewers. The Pirates averaged fewer than two runs per game in Skenes’ prior six starts, and should struggle again when facing Zac Gallen, who can easily return to ace status if he gets his high walk rate in order.
Arizona is looking to remain unbeaten in each of its last three home series after splitting the first two games against Pittsburgh. Its 12-8 record against teams under .500 suggests there is great value on the Diamondbacks today.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-124)
Cincinnati Reds (-118) at Kansas City Royals (+100) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Hunter Greene is Cincinnati’s ace in every sense of the word, leading all starters in K/9, WAR, and WHIP. However, the Royals are fortunate to not be seeing the midseason version of Greene, as the team appears cautious with him following an injury that landed him on the IL.
In his first start following a 16-day absence, Greene lasted only four innings against the Cubs while allowing two earned runs and striking out two batters. When Greene is on, his stuff is among the most dominant in the sport, suggested by his 11.9 K/BB rate.
I am taking advantage of this still inflated line based on Greene’s name alone, and I have confidence in youngster Noah Cameron for the Royals, who took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his MLB debut.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+100)
New York Yankees (-162) at Los Angeles Angels (+136) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)
The Yankees are very familiar with Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi from his time spent in the AL East. Kikuchi is on pace to lower his HR/9 rate for a fourth straight season. I also expect positive regression in the strikeout department, as he is on pace to finish with a K/9 rate (currently 8.1) lower than 9.0 for the first time since his rookie year in 2019.
New York entered yesterday with an MLB-best 150 wRC+ and a collective .281/.369/.514 slash line against left-handed pitchers. But Kikuchi is a respectable 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 15 career appearances against the Yankees, including a WHIP of 1.0 or better against them in each of the last two seasons.
Kikuchi has pitched to a 2.30 ERA in his last 27 1/3 innings against New York, so this makes for a great contrarian play in spite of the Yankees’ dominance of left-handed pitching this season.
Pick: Yankees Team Total Under 4.5 Runs (+104)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01