Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/7)
We followed up a profitable 6-2 week with our MLB best bets last week with another 2-0 day on Monday. We look to keep the momentum going and continue our blazing run with another trio of mid-week picks.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Wednesday, May 7th.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners (-154) at Athletics (+130) | O/U 9.0 (-112/-108)
After Monday’s dramatic 7-6 come-from-behind win in extra innings against Seattle in the series opener, the Athletics were surprisingly just one game back of the American League West-leading Mariners. However, their expected win/loss record of 16-20 was four games worse than their actual 20-16 record, and the Athletics were also struggling at home (7-9) and against teams over .500 (6-11).
The Athletics should have Seattle’s full attention for this series finale as they send righty Bryan Woo to the mound. Woo has limited current Athletics hitters to a combined .163/.204/.241 slash line in 92 at-bats, with just three of the 15 hits allowed going for extra bases.
Seattle’s offense entered Tuesday averaging 6.2 runs per game while leading the American League in slugging (.456) and the Majors in wOBA (.360). The Mariners were 16-6 in that span, and I expect them to earn another big victory in this series finale while covering the run line for the 11th time in 18 games as the road team.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+104)
San Diego Padres (+146) at New York Yankees (-174) | O/U 8.0 (-106/-114)
One of our two cashes on Monday was the under 8.0 runs in San Diego’s 4-3 series-opening win over New York. However, that wager should not have been a sweat if it wasn’t for the Yankees’ bullpen squandering a 3-0 lead in the eighth inning.
There are no such issues with the Padres’ bullpen, which leads the majors in ERA, opponents’ batting average and opponents’ slugging percentage. That gives me faith in the under cashing yet again, as Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.61) should also see positive regression. His 4.23 xERA is much lower than his actual ERA, and his walk rate is on pace to be in the single digits for the second time in the last four seasons.
Until Max Fried has a blowup start, we will continue to have confidence in a pitcher who has been a godsend for the Yankees amid the injuries to their starting rotation. No opponent has scored more than three runs in any of Fried’s last five starts (including two shutouts in that span). The American League Pitcher of the Month for April should continue his success in this start.
Pick: Under 8.0 Runs (-114)
Toronto Blue Jays (-122) at Los Angeles Angels (+104) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
The Blue Jays are 5-1 in Jose Berrios’ last six starts, winning by two or more runs four times in that span. Berrios has seen his strikeout total increase for three straight starts. While he ranks in the bottom fourth of all qualified pitchers in whiff rate and barrels, Berrios makes up for it by ranking in the top half of the league in ground ball rate.
Berrios is 3-55.64 ERA in 10 career starts against the Angels. But most of that lack of success was earlier in his career, as he earned the win while holding them to one earned run on two hits over seven innings last year.
The Angels are quickly falling out of the American League West race. They enter the day 6.5 games back and own the American League’s second-worst run differential (-59).
Los Angeles is also one of four teams in the Majors with two or fewer wins over its last 10 games (2-8). An offense that has been held to three or fewer runs 14 times in its last 20 games does not inspire confidence tonight.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-122)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01