Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (6/4)
Wednesday’s full 15-game MLB slate offers the perfect blend of afternoon action and night games. And most of the matchups are unique that we do not see often, as just three of the games are between divisional opponents. Read on for our top MLB picks and bets for Wednesday, June 4.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks & Bets
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers (+102) at Cincinnati Reds (-120) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)
The Brewers are underdogs in this divisional matchup in large part because Cincinnati is sending Andrew Abbott (5-0, 1.51) to the mound. While Abbott is undefeated through nine starts, just three of those have been quality starts, and the team has lost two of his last five times he has toed the rubber.
Milwaukee is a better team against left-handed starting pitchers (12-8) than right-handed starters (21-21). The Brewers rank in the top nine of the league in BABIP against left-handed pitching, which means their 17th-ranked wRC+ in that split is bound to see positive regression. But Andrew Abbott has also had inconsistent strikeout totals, with four or fewer strikeouts in three of his previous seven starts, which suggests the Brewers should get the bat on the ball more today.
The Reds are just 10-12 in divisional games and 9-10 as home favorites this season, so that makes Milwaukee a great underdog play in this NL Central matchup.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (+102)
Philadelphia Phillies (-102) at Toronto Blue Jays (-116) | O/U 9.5 (+100/-122)
The Phillies were expected to have Zack Wheeler available for this start, but the team announced the earliest he will pitch again is Friday as he and his wife are welcoming a new baby. That thrust Mick Abel into the starting rotation for his second career MLB start, and I do not expect this outing to go as swimmingly as the first.
Abel recorded a quality start and nine strikeouts over six scoreless innings in his debut against the Pirates two weeks ago. But now he faces a Blue Jays lineup that entered the series striking out at the lowest rate in the majors against right-handed pitching ((18%), and had an even lower 17.7% strikeout rate in all splits throughout May. Conversely, Jose Berrios has pitched to a 2.25 ERA and a .125 OBA over the last 15 days.
While Philadelphia has won each of its last five road series, two of those came against teams that are in last place in their division. The Phillies had been out-scored by 23 runs during a four-game losing streak before yesterday’s win, and I expect Toronto to add to rebound tonight.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-116)
Texas Rangers (+120) at Tampa Bay Rays (-142) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)
Our biggest starting pitching fade of the day is Texas’ Kumar Rocker, who has made just one quality start in five outings, and whose -0.9 WAR is the worst among all Rangers pitchers.
Rocker should be rusty after making his first start since coming off the 15-day IL (shoulder). He has been rocked for a 15.75 ERA in three road starts, allowing three home runs and a .463 OBA while pitching just eight combined innings over that span.
Tampa Bay entered this series ranked tied for ninth in wRC+ in home games while collectively slashing .249/.318/.395, and I expect it to improve upon its 4.2 runs per game average in home games in this matchup.
Pick: Rays Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-113)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01