Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/3)
My MLB picks ended the regular season profitably on a torrid 15-5 stretch over the last seven weeks. I’m excited to get back into the swings of things with my first best bets piece analyzing playoff action, as I make my top three plays from the four-game Divisional Series slate.
Two of my plays highlight the two divisional matchups between the White Sox and Guardians, and the Yankees and Rays. Given that these teams each played 13 times in the regular season, there was a lot of data to scour.
Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, October 3rd.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 45-35 (+8.10 units, +10.2% ROI)
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
You don't have to sell me on why Milwaukee is such a big favorite after winning a franchise-record 103 games. The Brewers are 22-8 in Jacob Misiorowski's starts, with an active nine-game winning streak and recent stretches of 12-1 and 20-4 marks when he toes the rubber.
But to dismiss San Diego's chances in Game 1 after needing only two games to get the better of the Cubs is a mistake. The Padres went 41-18 from July 24th to the end of the regular season, and that was not only the best record in the Majors over that span; it was also tied for the best 59-game stretch in franchise history.
San Diego won four of the six games between these teams in the regular season, and was one of just four National League teams to win the season series against Milwaukee. Instead of taking a real flier on San Diego to pull the outright upset, I’ll back it to at least keep this to a one-run game.
Pick: Padres +1.5 (-123)
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Chicago not only snapped a 21-year drought between playoff series wins, but it also won its first consecutive road games in a postseason. En route to its 2005 World Series title, the White Sox went 6-0 on the road, and they could go on a similar run here.
Not much separated these two teams in the regular season. Chicago won the regular-season series 7-6, with six of the 13 games decided by one run and two going to extra innings.
Parker Messick has allowed three or fewer runs in 14 consecutive starts, but I expect the White Sox to battle him early and steal this opener late. Messick made four starts against the White Sox this season. While Cleveland had a +6 run differential in those starts, the team went just 2-2.
Chicago has won its last five series openers, and this is great value to steal this Game 1.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+130)
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
New York is getting a lot of betting support after clobbering the Red Sox by a combined score of 18-to-2 in the two-game sweep. But the Yankees were only winning those games by 2-0 or 1-0 when Boston went to the bullpen early, and I'm limiting this wager to the first five innings since Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA ranked 10th among the 12 playoff teams.
Perhaps the Yankees merely faced a Red Sox team that reverted to their 32-46 start, not the one that ripped off 32 wins in 37 games after that. Tampa Bay was the best home team in the American League by a full six games.
After the All-Star break, Tampa Bay went 12-0 in Drew Rasmussen's 12 starts, covering the run line seven times (including his final start against the Yankees, a 6-1 victory).
I'm not doubting a New York offense that got hot and exploded for 18 runs in the sweep of the Red Sox. But much of the Yankees' success in that series came against Boston's left-handed pitching, as they went 15-for-34 with two extra-base hits, five RBI and a 5:2 K:BB ratio against Red Sox southpaws.
Rasmussen was one of four pitchers this season with at least five starts of seven or more shutout innings. He went 7-0 in his first seven starts after the All-Star break with 62 strikeouts and a 2.07 ERA, the third-lowest ERA in the Majors in that span. Rasmussen's .577 OPS allowed is the fourth-lowest among all pitchers since 2023 (minimum 350 innings). He had a historic season, becoming the third pitcher in Rays history to record 15 wins and a sub-2.75 ERA in a single season. I expect him to cruise early in this game.
Pick: Rays First Five Innings Moneyline (-150)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.