Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/2)
Last week, my MLB picks went a perfect 3-0, as I correctly identified the overs in American League and National League clashes, as well as a value Moneyline play in what was a pick’em matchup. I’m following that formula again with two plays on a total and one Moneyline play to try and turn in another profitable day.
Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, May 2nd.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 8-7 (+0.99 units)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
Entering their series finale against the Brewers on Thursday, the Diamondbacks hit 22 home runs in their previous 13 games, with three or more home runs in three of the previous six. That is a big resurgence for a lineup that had combined for just nine homers in the first 16 games.
Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga's 1.93 HR/9 rate was the worst among all pitchers (minimum 140 innings) last season. He has allowed three more home runs in three fewer innings at home than on the road, and has a fly ball rate of 33.7%, which could get him into trouble in hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley Field.
Opposing Imanaga today is Ryne Nelson, who has a troubling 7.71 ERA and is on pace for a career-worst 1.519 WHIP. That does not inspire confidence when facing a Cubs offense that leads the Majors in on-base percentage (OBP), and ranks in the top two in wOBA and wRC+.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (+104)
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
There have been seven or fewer runs scored in all six of Carmen Mlodzinski's starts, with four of those finishing with a total of five or fewer runs.
Mlodzinski's worst two starts of the season have come in his last two outings, as he has allowed nine earned runs over his last eight innings.
Both of those outings were on the road, and I trust that a return to PNC Park should get the righty's issues straightened out, as he has a 1.69 ERA and .184 OBA at home this season. He has also been elite at keeping the ball in the park, as he’s one of five pitchers (minimum 20 innings) to not allow a home run this season.
Meanwhile, this is only Rhett Lowder's 13th career start. But he has already made five starts of five-plus innings without allowing a run, including his only appearance against the Pirates in 2024.
Pick: Under 8.0 Runs (-108)
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
Seattle entered this series amid its hottest stretch of play in the young season, winning six of their last seven. It is no surprise that the team is playing better as the trio of Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor and Julio Rodriguez is heating up.
Perhaps those three sluggers needed time to overcome fatigue from the World Baseball Classic, as they combined to slash .172/.266/.254 with five home runs, a 54 wRC+ and a -0.6 fWAR over the first 23 games. But over the following six games, they combined to slash .400/.442/.700 while belting six home runs and totaling a 219 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR.
The production lately has come up and down Seattle’s lineup, as youngster Cole Young had a six-game RBI streak. The Mariners have many more offensive weapons and a more consistent batting order in this primetime affair.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-149)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.