Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/11)
The last weekend before next week’s MLB All-Star Break is upon us, and I have provided a three-pack of MLB picks that offer great value based on past trends. We enter the weekend looking to move over .500 and to establish a winning record with a moneyline wager, total, and runline bet. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, July 11th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 22-23 (-1.50 units)
Athletics at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox entered this series having lost three straight games and six of eight. Their offense was a big reason for those losing ways, as the team was held to one run or fewer in each of the previous three, and four times overall over that span.
The first reason for optimism in backing the White Sox are that they are coming off just their first home series loss since April 24-26 against the Nationals. They also reinstated slugger Munetaka Murakami from the IL, which should help their offensive woes, and face the perfect pitching staff to get going offensively.
The Athletics entered this series amid a six-game losing streak. During that span, they pitched to a 7.59 ERA, .296 opponents’ average, and 1.005 opponents’ OPS over that span. So while Gage Jump has pitched to a 0.49 ERA and .150 OBA in three road starts, I’m still fading an Athletics team that has lost each of his last three outings.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-108)
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Tyler Mahle takes the mound for San Francisco with a 1-8 record, and the team is 1-4 in his last five starts overall. But this wager is all about trends between these division rivals that are appealing to ignore.
After Thursday’s 8-2 loss in the series opener, the Rockies had a seven-game road losing streak against the Giants. In that span, they averaged just 2.0 runs per game, while batting .179 with a team .536 OPS, and a collective 6.27 ERA from their pitching staff over that span.
Meanwhile, San Francisco had won 19 of 20 home games against the Rockies entering the weekend. It logged a plus-75 run differential in that stretch, while averaging 6.4 runs per game, pitching to a 2.40 ERA, and batting .308 with a .936 OPS as a team.
Colorado’s Kyle Freeland’s 8.62 road ERA is worse than his 6.38 ERA at Coors Field, thus easing the concern over Mahle starting for the Giants.
Pick: Giants -1.5 (+136)
Boston Red Sox at New York Mets
During Boston's 11-2 run in its previous 13 games entering this series, it averaged 5.0 runs and logged a plus-25 run differential. Many of those lopsided victories were a result of dominant pitching, as the Red Sox starters and bullpen pitched to a collective 2.33 and 3.63 ERA, respectively, over that span.
But Brayan Bello gets the surprise call-up in place of injured All-Star Ranger Suarez. Bello made four starts since being optioned to Triple-A Worcester, pitching to a 4.34 ERA and .400 BABIP. That won't cut it against the Mets, who won four of five games to start the week while averaging 8.4 runs per game.
Boston has had eight different pitchers (excluding openers) make a start for it this season, and six have ERAs under 3.50. But Brayan Bello is one of the two exceptions.
On the other side, the difference between Freddy Peralta's 4.68 ERA and 3.75 xERA is the 10th-largest among pitchers that have thrown at least 80 innings. But even though positive regression may be looming, I cannot ignore Boston’s recent offensive success.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.