Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/18)
The first weekend after the MLB All-Star break is upon us, and I have provided a three-pack of MLB picks that offer great value. We enter the weekend looking for a profitable day and to move over .500 with two Moneyline wagers and a play on a total, two of which offer plus-money odds. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, July 18th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 24-24 (-0.22 units)
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Shane Bieber optimists will say he looked better in his last start, working around a first-inning home run and showing increased velocity on all his pitches. Pessimists will say that Bieber has now allowed at least one home run in all four of his starts (seven total) and now faces a White Sox team that has hit the fourth-most home runs in the Majors.
Granted, the White Sox have been a much better team at home (14 games over .500) than on the road (20-28). But the Blue Jays were also a disappointing 17-32 against teams over .500 in the first half of the season - the second-worst winning percentage in that split among all American League teams.
Prior to yesterday’s series opener, Chicago had cashed its team total over in 25 of its previous 40 away games (+9.1 units/20% return on investment), and I’m banking on its offense to lead the way again when facing a struggling Bieber.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-108)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Jesus Luzardo finished sixth in strikeout rate in 2025, and he is trending once again towards the same xFIP that he ended with last season, which ranked ninth among qualified pitchers.
Luzardo looks to build off of his first All-Star Game nomination in facing a Mets team that he has a career 6-2 record against, while pitching to a 3.16 ERA. He hasn’t lost to the Mets in three seasons, and turned in WHIPs of 0.857 and 0.911 the last two seasons. He held New York to one run over five innings this season.
I’m also confident in this play given how tough Sean Manaea is on left-handed batters. His .230/.267/.340 slash line and six extra-base hits allowed (among 23 total base hits) against lefties help navigate the power-hitting duo of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. The southpaw improved upon his .298/.338/.533 slash line against current Phillies hitters by limiting them to two earned runs over 5.1 innings on June 18th.
After New York’s 4-1 win in Friday’s series opener, the under was 30-20 in Philadelphia’s last 50 games (+10.35 units/19% return on investment).
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (+104)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Much has been made of Boston's MLB-best 15-5 record over its final 20 games leading up to the All-Star break. But Tampa Bay quietly tied for the American League's second-best record over that span (13-7) and shouldn't be overlooked because of its superior play over the entire season.
Patrick Sandoval is coming off his first start since June 2024 (Tommy John surgery). I'm not encouraged by his fastball that topped out at 94.3 miles per hour (MPH), which induced one whiff on 12 swings. Tampa Bay's offense, which ranks in the top nine in wOBA and batting average on balls in play (BABIP), should have a field day.
Furthermore, the Rays were the second-most profitable team to wager on via the Moneyline in the first half of the season, as bettors would have profited 9.2 units by wagering one unit on each of their games.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (+104)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.