Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/25)
Only one-third of Saturday’s Major League Baseball slate is between divisional opponents, so my MLB picks aim to take advantage of certain lines given the lack of familiarity between some teams. We enter the weekend looking for a profitable day and to move over .500 with two Moneyline wagers and a play on a total, one of which offers plus-money odds.
Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, July 25th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 25-26 (-1.18 units)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
This wager will likely scare many, as Arizona scored 28 runs over its last three games, after scoring 10+ runs three times in its previous 101 games. But I’m all about riding Foster Griffin’s hot streak, and am selling high after the Diamondbacks’ hottest stretch of games this season.
Griffin made history earlier this season by becoming one of just two Nationals pitchers with seven consecutive starts with one run or fewer allowed in franchise history (excluding openers). He is now 5-0 with a 1.25 ERA and a 46: K:BB ratio in his last eight starts. He allowed one or fewer runs in all eight starts.
The Nationals are 10-1 the last 11 times Griffin has toed the rubber. Their only loss came in an 11-10 defeat in which their bullpen blew a 9-1 lead with four relievers combining to allow 10 runs in two innings.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (-150)
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Miami enters amid a 10-game losing streak, its fifth single-season double-digit losing streak in franchise history (first since 2011). I'm still fading the Marlins despite them being competitive throughout the losing streak that saw all of the games decided by three runs or fewer.
Miami has egregious splits when facing right-handed versus left-handed starting pitchers. It is 10-17 against southpaws compared to 42-34 against righties. Thus, JP Sears should have the edge over a Marlins lineup that ranks 14th in wRC+ and slugging against southpaws, and in the bottom half in batting average.
San Diego has not lost a season series to Miami since 2019. That’s a big reason I consider these great odds to back San Diego outright despite Miami’s huge struggles of late, as the Marlins are just 4-8 in Eury Perez’s last 12 starts. That includes a five-start losing streak against just two teams with winning records from late April to early May, when the team was playing a lot better baseball than it is now. I’m also intrigued by San Diego’s right-handed-dominant lineup since Perez has reverse splits with worse numbers against right-handed batters than lefties.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (+114)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
The Dodgers have won seven of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last nine starts, while the righty has pitched to a 2.30 ERA, a .170 opponent's batting average, .222 opponent's on-base percentage (OBP) and .479 opponent's OPS.
Yamamoto's arm looked lively despite throwing 102 pitches for his third career complete game, with a 97 miles per hour (MPH) average fastball velocity in the seventh inning. He became the first National League pitcher with a nine-inning complete game at Yankee Stadium in the regular season since Pedro Martinez accomplished it with the Expos in August of 1997.
Meanwhile, Nolan McLean is coming off tying a season-high 10 strikeouts. Over his last six starts, he is 4-2 with a 1.95 ERA and an 11.4 K/9 ratio while pitching at least six innings each time out.
Pick: Under 8.0 Runs (-117)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.