Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/12)
My MLB picks are 10-2 over the last four weeks, and I’ve reached a season-high in profits during the “dog days” of the Major League Baseball season.
Among today’s best bets, I make my top picks from a divisional rivalry in the National League East, as well as a crosstown rivalry whose teams are just miles apart.
Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, September 12th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 41-31 (+8.85 units)
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole looked like he was trending in the right direction with a 2.84 ERA and 10.3 K/9 rate in the 11 starts prior to his last outing. Though Cole allowed six total hits, three came on home runs by three consecutive Padres batters to start the game. Perhaps he is regressing back to the pitcher who logged a 4.06 ERA and 8.1 K/9 rate in his first seven starts.
Cole is relying on contact to record outs, as he ranks in the 28th and 30th percentile in whiff and chase rate, respectively.
The Mets entered this series amid a 6-1 stretch during which their offense averaged 8.6 runs per game and scored double-digit runs three times. That included a 15-14 win over the Marlins, where the 29 combined runs were the second-most in a game this season.
I’m not worried about the Yankees’ ability to score in their own ballpark, and I expect the Mets to hit Cole, as the contact he is pitching to has resulted in a 44% hard-hit rate (10th percentile) and 8.7% barrel rate (27th percentile).
Pick: Over 8.0 Runs (-113)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Paul Skenes has shown massive signs of improvement over much of his last three starts. In that span, he pitched at least six innings for the first time in the last six starts. That was also his first with zero runs over six or more innings since May 12th.
In his last start against the Angels, Skenes threw 5.1 scoreless innings in large part because he pumped the strike zone with 81% first-pitch strikes. And while velocity has been a concern of late, he averaged a 96.7 miles per hour (MPH) four-seam fastball in the last outing.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is on the precipice of setting a single-season franchise record for home runs. But that strength should be mitigated by Clay Holmes’s 99th percentile groundball rate and 89th percentile barrel rate.
Pick: Under 9.0 Runs (-115)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
In Tyler Mahle's first five starts with the Braves, he went 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA over 30.1 innings, a 32:5 K:BB ratio and a 0.96 WHIP. He held opponents to a .216 batting average and .581 OPS, after allowing a .265 average and .770 OPS in 18 starts with the Giants.
Mahle followed that up with six scoreless innings in his last start. But I'm limiting this under to the first five innings, as seven of the nine runs that were scored in Mahle's last start against the Phillies came after the fifth inning.
Conversely, Jesus Luzardo entered this series with MLB's second-lowest ERA in the Majors since the All-Star break (minimum 40 innings). He lowered his ERA in that span to 1.84 after throwing his first complete game in his 150th career start. It was also the first 1-0 shutout by a Phillies pitcher since Roy Halladay in 2011, and was the Phillies' MLB-leading 17th shutout.
In his last seven starts, Luzardo is 5-0 with a 1.08 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 64:11 K:BB ratio and 11.5 K/9 rate. He has held opponents to a .166 batting average and .492 OPS during that span. Luzardo’s 221 strikeouts are a new career-high, and he is one of three left-handed pitchers in franchise history with multiple seasons of 215+ strikeouts.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.