Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Friday (4/11)
We’ve got a full slate of MLB games on the schedule tonight. Every game will be played at night, which is likely the first time that’s been the case this season. You’ve finally got some time to get your wagers in.
Here are three MLB player prop bets to consider for tonight’s 15-game slate.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
The Atlanta Braves will send out Bryce Elder to take on Jonathan Aranda and the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s thrown to 17 batters this season, allowing a .400 ISO and wOBA of .381. However, most of the damage has come from the left side of the batter’s box.
Elder has allowed his first eight lefties to hit a 1.000 ISO and wOBA of .698 with 33.3% of ground balls and 66.7% of fly balls. This is nothing new. Last season, Elder faced 121 lefties and allowed a .187 ISO and wOBA of .405.
Meanwhile, Aranda is one of a few Rays lefties who have crushed right-handed pitching to start the year. Aranda has nailed a .409 ISO and wOBA of .551 with only 16% of strikeouts against righties. During this stretch, he’s also hit 47.4% of fly balls and just 26.3% of ground balls. Let’s back Aranda to add at least two total bases. There’s so much value at his +155 odds.
German Marquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The Colorado Rockies will pitch German Marquez tonight. Marquez has been terrific this season, standing with a 2.45 ERA entering this game. He’s limited teams to a .077 ISO and wOBA of .295 and has added 53.1% of ground balls. However, he’s also earned just 15.6% of strikeouts and has walked 13.3% of batters.
That’s not ideal.
Marquez missed most of last season with an injury, but since returning, he’s struggled with high walks and low strikeouts.
That said, he’ll take on a Padres lineup that has struck out only 17.3% of the time against righties to start the season. The starting lineup has just two players who have struck out more than 20% of the time. The Padres should be able to limit strikeouts against Marquez tonight.
Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
The Athletics have shown some pop early on this season.
Tyler Soderstrom has been right in the middle of it.
The lefty first baseman has socked a .463 ISO and wOBA of .535 against righties to begin the year. He’s hit 29% of fly balls, 54.8% of hard contact and a 22.6% barrel rate against righties this season.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Griffin Canning of the New York Mets. Canning already allowed a .394 wOBA to 13 lefties this season. Additionally, he gave up a .207 ISO and wOBA of .360 to 386 lefties last year. Those lefties last season hit 31.4% of fly balls and 23.5% of line drives. Soderstrom has a solid matchup against Canning. Let’s exploit it.