Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Friday (4/18)
With a full 15-game slate on the horizon in the MLB, I’ve added my top three player props you’ll want to consider for tonight’s action.
Tap in below and let’s begin the weekend strong.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cole Ragans Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Cole Ragans has struck out 36.6% of batters to begin the season. The lefty pitcher has also held teams to a 4.3% walk rate and has limited opponents to a .129 ISO and a wOBA of .255 this season.
Meanwhile, the Royals lefty will battle a Tigers projected lineup that has struck out 26.5% of the time against lefties dating back to last season. The Tigers will likely have six batters in the lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 23.3% against lefties since last season. With six true targets, Ragans could end up with a super-high strikeout rate.
After all, the Tigers’ projected lineup has only hit a .288 wOBA against lefties since last season. They’ve also walked only 7.9% of the time. Ragans could rack up strikeouts and stay in the game for a long time. Let’s back his over.
Sean Murphy Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160)
It’ll be Chris Paddack on the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight. He’s a righty who has struggled everywhere this season. He’s faced 60 batters and has allowed a .208 ISO and wOBA of .381, while giving up 13.3% of walks with only a 15% strikeout rate.
More specifically, he’s allowed a .219 ISO and wOBA of .401 to his first 40 righties this season. Those righties have hit 31% of fly balls and more than 24% of line drives against Paddack this year.
Meanwhile, Sean Murphy of the Braves has socked a .474 ISO and wOBA of .474 against his first 23 righties faced this season. Murphy has hit more than 33% of fly balls and 58.3% of hard contact. He also has a team-leading 25% barrel percentage against righties.
Let’s add Murphy to earn at least two total bases.
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
Shohei Ohtani has slugged a .250 ISO and wOBA of .381 against righties to begin the season. He’s struck out 26.3% of the time, which is a bit high. However, he’s also hit 36.4% of fly balls with 69.7% hard contact and a 21.2% barrel percentage against righties this year.
Ohtani will battle Jacob deGrom, who was once one of the best pitchers in the game. However, deGrom has struggled against lefties this season. He’s allowed a .452 ISO and wOBA of .456 against his first 37 lefties. He’s also allowed 48% of hard contact and 40% of fly balls to lefties this season. Beyond that, deGrom has earned just 16.2% of strikeouts against lefties and has walked them 13.5% of the time.
This is unlike deGrom, but I’m all about exploiting numbers. Ohtani looks terrific analytically against deGrom. We’ll take our chances.