Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Friday (5/16)
With a 15-game slate in the MLB tonight, I’ve found some intriguing MLB player props to fire on tonight.
Let’s start the weekend strong.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Riley Greene has socked a .288 ISO and wOBA of .431 against his last 76 righties. He’s struck out just 18.4% of the time and has added 62.7% of hard contact with a team-leading 20.3% barrel rate over the last 30 days against righties.
Tonight, he’ll battle Bowden Francis of the Toronto Blue Jays. Francis has allowed a .316 ISO and wOBA of .370 to his first 107 lefties this season. Francis has also struck out fewer than 17% of lefties this year, allowing nearly 74% of hard contact to lefties.
Francis has also allowed 35% of fly balls, which is the same amount of ground balls induced this season against lefties. Conversely, Greene has socked more than 27% of fly balls against righties.
Greene has a lot of potential against Francis tonight.
Andre Pallante Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Yes, I’m firing on a strikeout prop of 2.5 and taking the under.
Andre Pallante has earned just 15.1% of strikeouts this season. He’s also allowed a .178 ISO and a wOBA of .335. Ultimately, he’s a groundball pitcher who limits hits in the air. Hopefully, he gets a lot of ground balls tonight.
Pallante faces a Royals’ projected lineup that has struck out only 15.1% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. No single player in the Royals’ lineup has struck out more than 20.3% of the time against righties over the last month.
The Royals have walked below 6% of the time as a projected lineup over the last 30 days. They’re aggressive at the plate, so it’s unlikely Pallante earns a high rate of strikeouts. Take his under.
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
German Marquez will take the hill for the Rockies tonight. The veteran righty has allowed a .215 ISO and wOBA of .408 to his first 88 righties faced this season. He’s also allowed more than 32% of line drives to righties this year.
While he barely pitched last season, Marquez still allowed a .300 ISO and wOBA of .513 to 12 righties in 2024. This is a common theme with Marquez.
That said, he’ll pitch against Eugenio Suarez of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Suarez has socked a .373 ISO and wOBA of .426 against his last 85 righties. He’s also smashed 64.9% of hard contact and has hit a 19.3% barrel rate.
That should do the trick against Marquez, who has only struck out 13.6% of righties this year. After all, Suarez has wacked 42.1% of fly balls and 26.3% of line drives, with only 22.8% of ground balls. He’s usually a high strikeout hitter, but has only struck out 22.4% of the time against righties in the last month. It just shows you how locked in Suarez has been against righties recently. Let’s take advantage.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: