Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Saturday (4/5)
Friday was the last batch of Opening Days around Major League Baseball, as all 30 teams can now claim they have played at least one game at home. From here on out we get into a more “normalized” schedule, starting with today’s full 15-game slate with a perfect blend of afternoon and evening baseball.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Saturday, April 5th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Anytime one can face a Twins lineup without the trio of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis active at the same time, it is a big advantage. Minnesota ranked in the top 10 of strikeout rate last year, and entered Friday ranked sixth among American League teams in strikeout rate (22%).
However, Spencer Arrighetti is a budding star who had a solid 27% strikeout rate in his rookie year. He also turned in the 14th-best K-BB% (21.4%) in the second half last season, and recorded a SwStr% above 15% on two of his secondary pitches (curveball and sweeper).
Per Fantrax’s Kirk Snyder, Arrighetti was one of five starting pitchers with a sub-3.20 ERA and a 10.8 K/9 rate or better after the All-Star break last year. I will continue to back the youngster at decent odds until oddsmakers catch on to how talented he is.
Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+400)
Through the first two starts of his MLB career, prized prospect Roki Sasaki has walked an alarming 34.6% of batters.
Though his ground ball rate now sits at 41.7%, just one-third of his outs in his debut were ground ball outs. That’s a dangerous way to approach a home run-happy Phillies lineup in a hitters’ park like Citizens Bank.
Sasaki ranks in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and has allowed just a .188 xSLG thus far. But if any lineup is going to take him deep for the first time, it is likely to be the Phillies. I am on board with their best power hitter to go yard at these odds.
Brady Singer Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-165)
The Cincinnati Reds made history of the wrong kind in becoming the first team since 1960 to lose three straight games by a 1-0 score. While that dubious distinction does not have us flocking to their hittee props, it shows how good this pitching staff can be. I’m backing Brady Singer to turn in a second straight dominant start.
Singer threw seven scoreless innings in his first start against a dominant Rangers lineup, which instantly vaulted him into the top 10 in WAR among pitchers. He was the first pitcher to throw seven or more scoreless innings in his Reds debut since Tom Seaver in 1977. He now faces a Brewers lineup that ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in slugging entering Friday.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.