Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Thursday (5/1)
Thursdays are usually a popular getaway day in Major League Baseball. However, today’s slate is more jam-packed than usual with 11 games, and seven of them coming in the afternoon window.
Today’s MLB player prop bets back the overs on two starting pitchers, and continues to fade an All-Star infielder who has gotten off to a slow start.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday, May 1st.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a doubleheader against the division rival St. Louis Cardinals yesterday, and the team will not have a day off for the next 10 days. That is why I expect the coaching staff will push starting pitcher Andrew Abbott in this matchup to give them a lengthy outing and rest the bullpen.
Abbott has had solid career success against St. Louis, limiting current Cardinals hitters to a .214/.295/.454 slash line in 70 combined at-bats.
Do not be influenced by Abbott’s short four-inning appearance in his last start, as that came in hitter-friendly Coors Field. The start before that, he recorded 11 strikeouts and allowed just two hits in six innings in a dominant performance against the Orioles. He should be able to get through six innings of work if the team allows him to throw 90+ pitches for the second time this season.
Marcus Semien Under 0.5 Hits (+160)
Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien has been one of the biggest disappointments thus far this season.
Semien has had a history of slow starts in the past, like when he went 43 games without a home run to start the season in 2022. His .178/.250/.243 slash line entering Tuesday was a big reason the Rangers’ offense as a whole had not performed to the level of preseason expectations.
Semien has had great career success against Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs, going 6-for-13 with three home runs and a 1.687 OPS. While Semien’s batting average and OPS were 71 and 101 points higher, respectively, against left-handed pitchers than righties, the fact he was batting just .187 over the last month has me fading the slugger despite his career success against Springs.
Jose Berrios Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios should come into this matchup with the utmost of confidence after conquering his demons that were the New York Yankees in his last start.
Berrios entered that start with a poor 4-8 record and career 5.22 ERA against the Bronx Bombers, which was an even worse 6.05 ERA at Yankee Stadium. However, Berrios was also on pace for his lowest fly ball rate (20.2%) of his career entering that start. He kept the home-run happy Yankees in the ballpark with five scoreless innings.
Berrios has struck out four or fewer batters in two straight starts and three of the previous four. I am expecting a bounceback in the strikeout department against a Red Sox team that entered Tuesday with the ninth-worst strikeout rate, which rises to the fourth-worst (23.6%) against right-handed pitchers.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.