Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Tuesday (4/22)
In our last MLB player props column on Saturday, we cashed two plays at +110 odds each after Corbin Carroll and Jonathan Aranda each hit home runs to cash their runs scored and total bases props, respectively. That helped ease the sting of going 2-1 on our trio of picks after missing out on a 3-0 sweep by just one Garrett Crochet strikeout.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, April 22nd.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kris Bubic to Record a Win (+110)
The Colorado Rockies have been an abysmal offensive team on the road this season. They rank last in the majors in wRC+ (49) and wOBA (.237 in road games), and have been held to three or fewer runs in 10 out of 12 road games this season. That includes being shut out three times and scoring just one run on three other occasions.
This is a great spot for Kris Bubic to improve upon his team-best 1.0 WAR and earn his team-leading third win. Bubic is the only Royals starting pitcher with three quality starts this season, even though he has made one fewer start than Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha.
While Colorado is likely due some positive regression with a .270 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) despite totaling a .188 team batting average in road games this season, this is still a great spot to use Kansas City’s steeper -218 Moneyline odds to gain some value with a player prop like Bubic earning the victory.
Jose Quintana Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Left-handed pitchers have been a great foil to an explosive San Francisco Giants lineup so far this season.
The Giants entered the week as one of six teams that had scored 110+ runs, but San Francisco was also collectively slashing just .207/.275/.371 against southpaws, with a BABIP (.254) that ranked 23rd.
This line is somewhat inflated since San Francisco strikes out at the sixth-highest rate (26.6%) against left-handed pitching this season. But Jose Quintana, despite a sizzling start with a 2-0 record and 0.71 ERA, does not miss many bats. Quintana’s strikeout rate has dipped for five consecutive seasons, and his current 13% strikeout rate is on par to be by far the lowest of his career.
Quintana ranks in the ninth percentile in strikeout rate, and his ERA is not likely to remain elite for long, as he ranks in the first percentile in hard-hit rate and whiff percentage.
These are great odds for Quintana to throw fewer than four strikeouts for the second time in three starts.
Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Tyler Soderstrom has been one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far, entering the week tied for the league lead in home runs (nine) and ranking sixth in slugging (.643).
Soderstrom has done much of his damage against right-handed pitchers, with eight of his home runs coming in that split. While he has an on-base percentage and slugging percentage 59 and 99 points higher, respectively, against righties, the fact that he is batting .313 with two of his five hits against southpaws going for extra bases is too hard to overlook.
Patrick Corbin is on pace to allow a hard-hit percentage of 40% or higher for the sixth consecutive season, and his 5.82 xERA compared to his actual 3.86 ERA suggests his solid beginning to the season is somewhat of a mirage.
Soderstrom has six strikeouts in his last seven at-bats, but I expect him to break out of that mini-slump with a big day in this series opener.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.