Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Wednesday (4/30)
We’ve got a full 16-game MLB slate today, including one doubleheader. I’ve added three of my favorite MLB player props for tonight’s action.
Check them out below.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Kyle Tucker will battle Carmen Mlodzinski of the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. Mlodzinski has allowed a .213 ISO and wOBA of .421 to his first 50 left-handed batters as a right-handed pitcher. He’s also given up more than 35% of line drives and has struck out just 20% of lefties this season.
Meanwhile, Tucker has launched a .292 ISO and wOBA of .448. He’s also struck out only 14% of the time and has more walks than strikeouts. That said, Mlodzinski has walked only 6% of lefties this season. It’s likely Tucker will get pitches to hit throughout the game.
Plus, Tucker has hit 37.7% of fly balls and 29.5% of line drives against righties this season. He’s also earned 54.1% of hard contact with an 18% barrel percentage and a .351 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against righties. Take a chance on Tucker to add at least two total bases tonight.
Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
While the Blue Jays haven’t announced a starter yet, it looks like Casey Lawrence will get the start for Toronto. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .250 ISO and wOBA to his first 25 righties this season.
Those 25 righties have hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .442 with only 31.8% of ground balls. In addition, those 25 righties have hit a 13.6% barrel percentage and 27.3% of line drives. Lawrence has only earned 8.1% of swinging strikes and has gained only 8% of strikeouts against righties.
Conversely, Lawrence battles Alex Bregman of the Red Sox. Bregman is one of the few righties that has good slugging numbers against righties in this Boston lineup. He’s hit a .278 ISO and wOBA of .423 against righties this season. He’s also smoked 38.4% of fly balls, while hitting just 31.5% of ground balls.
Let’s take advantage of Lawrence’s struggles against righties and back Bregman to add at least two total bases.
Shane Smith Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-176)
The White Sox will send Shane Smith to the mound to pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers. Smith is a right-handed pitcher who has only struck out 20.2% of batters this season. Ultimately, he’s held teams to a .062 ISO and wOBA of .244, but he’s also allowed 33.8% of fly balls and, again, doesn’t add a whole bunch of strikeouts,
Ultimately, he’ll pitch against a Brewers projected lineup that has struck out only 15.6% of the time against righties. There are only two batters in the projected lineup for the Brewers who have struck out more than 19.7% of the time.
Meanwhile, Smith has averaged just 78 pitches per start and isn’t getting super deep into games. Let’s fade him and take him to go under his strikeouts line.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: